Rupee Closes Flat Against Dollar As Global Markets Wobble

The Indian rupee closed flat at 84.39 against the US dollar on Tuesday. It is nearly unchanged from Monday’s close of 84.388, as per Bloomberg data.

Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, noted rupee's range-bound performance, setting a daily forecast of 84.30 to 84.50.

"Exporters should wait with a stop loss at 84.25, as the rupee remains on a weakening trajectory, while importers should consider buying on dips," Bhansali said.

Global cues showed limited impact on Asia, as US markets hit record highs on Monday, driven by "the Trump trade," though momentum from election week waned in holiday-thinned trading.

Bhansali noted that weak signals from China's recent stimulus measures could continue to weigh on regional currencies, including the rupee. OPEC+ also faces challenges in raising oil production, as China’s cooling demand tempers any potential boost to crude prices.

Amit Pabari, Managing Director of CR Forex Advisors, highlighted China's underwhelming stimulus and weak October data as factors pressuring the Chinese yuan, impacting the rupee while strengthening the dollar. 

“Despite these pressures, the RBI’s intervention is crucial in limiting the rupee's depreciation. While the Emerging Market Currencies Index has declined 6.3% since early October, the rupee fell by only 0.69%, underscoring RBI’s active role in defending the currency,” said Pabari

He expects the rupee to remain within 83.80 to 84.50 in the medium term, with the RBI prepared to curb further downside risks.