J&K Assembly Elections: Who Will Win? Three Possible Scenarios Explained

Jammu & Kashmir's first assembly election in 10 years—also the first since the removal of the special status and its subsequent creation into a Union Territory—has a fascinating contest brewing between the JKNC-INC alliance, PDP, BJP and other parties, which include many ex-separatists, smaller parties and independents. 

The state has thrown hung verdicts in the last three polls. The million-dollar question in everyone’s minds is whether any party or alliance will cross the halfway mark or will voters again give a fractured mandate. 

458 candidates are in fray for the first two phases of Jammu and Kashmir. The first phase of polling is on Sept. 18 for 24 seats, and the final phase is on Oct. 1 for 40 seats, with results on Oct. 8. A record 44% of these candidates are independents, as per reports. 

A high turnout in the 2024 general elections highlights the increased enthusiasm among voters, with the return of peace and tourism thriving. 

Post delimitation, the seats in J&K have increased from 87 to 90—Kashmir valley has 47 (+1), Jammu region 43 (+1), and Ladakh 0 (-4; as it is now a separate UT). Kashmir Valley, which has a population of 56% as per the 2011 census, now accounts for 52% of seats, while Jammu, which has a population of 44%, now accounts for 48% of seats. 

The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference is contesting 51 seats, the Indian National Congress on 32 seats, the Panther's Party and CPI on one seat each, while five seats will be friendly fights. The rough formula for this alliance to work is 30 seats to be won by JKNC in the Muslim majority Kashmir valley and 15 seats by INC in Hindu majority Jammu. 

Had the two parties contested together in 2014, they would have won 43 of the 87 seats in the old assembly. 

The JKNC-INC alliance was leading in 41 assembly segments (JKNC: 34, INC: 7) out of 90. This is just five seats short of the majority. The alliance has potential to win, as in a local election, it could build on its tally. 

In three Lok Sabha seats of the valley, JKNC was leading in 34, PDP in five and 'others' in 15 assembly segments. In two Lok Sabha seats of Jammu, the BJP was leading in 29 and INC in seven. While NC had a strike rate of 63%, INC just 19%, which could be a cause of worry for the alliance. 

In direct contests with the BJP in 2024 general elections, INC increased its strike rate from 8% to 29%. INC, which could win just 15 of the 190 direct contest seats at all India levels in the 2019 general elections, won 62 out of 215 in 2024, significantly upping its performance. This would give both NC and INC confidence. 

BJP hopes the alliance with JKNC exposes Congress in the Jammu region. JKNC has promised restoration of special status and Article 35A. While this may have some resonance in the valley, they may not have similar traction in Jammu. Amit Shah has already attacked INC and posed 10 questions seeking clarification on its stand on the issues. 

Smaller parties like Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party, Sajjad Lone’s People’s Conference, Ghulam Nabi Azad’s DAP, Jammu Kashmir Apni Party and independents are threatening to spoil JKNC’s chances in the valley. 

Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti’s losses indicate a section of voters are looking for new faces beyond dynasties. This poses a risk for JKNC, which even Abdullahs have acknowledged. 

The influence of PDP has declined significantly in J&K. After winning three Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 general elections and following it up with 28 seats in the 2014 Vidhan Sabha elections, it couldn’t win a single Lok Sabha seat in 2019 or 2024. 

Its vote share dropped to less than 9% in the 2024 general elections and it was leading in just five assembly segments. NC hopes some of these votes could transfer to it, compensating for dent made by 'others'.

BJP hopes to win, given the fact that delimitation has increased the seats of Jammu region, where it is strong, having won all its 25 seats in 2014 here. Also, nine ST reserved seats have been introduced for the first time and the BJP hopes to reap benefits through support from Paharis, whose decades-long demand for inclusion in the ST list has been fulfilled by the party. 

It also hopes that the Kashmir valley seats are split between many parties and 'others', the PDP play spoilsport to the JKNC-INC alliance’s chances. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP was leading in 29 assembly segments; it contested only the two Jammu seats. 

It is contesting just 62 seats in the state elections, so winning 46 out of 62 seats would require an impossibly high strike rate of 74%. While it is contesting in all of Jammu, it is contesting on just 20 odd seats in the valley. It has never won a seat in the Kashmir valley and strategically opted out, hoping non-JKNC and non-PDP parties/independents do well and it emerges as the single largest party.

So a victory is ruled out for the BJP. To emerge as SLP, it needs to win around 30-35 seats from the Jammu region. Six of the nine ST reserved seats are in Jammu. The problem for the BJP is that Jammu region also has districts—Doda, Rajouri, Poonch, Kishtwar and Ramban—where Muslims are in majority. There are 16 such seats, up from 13 in the old assembly. 

In 2019, the BJP had won six seats out of these 13. Three of the seats were won due to a split of votes as JKNC-INC were contesting separately. Five of the six ST reserved seats in Jammu are in these five districts and the BJP hopes this could neutralise the demographic disadvantage it has in these seats.

It needs to win 20-25 from Hindu majority Jammu and 5-10 from Muslim majority Jammu to emerge as SLP and then conjure up a post-poll arrangement with 'others', in a best-case scenario. However, that is also dependent upon how much 'others' dent the JKNC-INC alliance in the valley. 

It’s said that “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme." A hung assembly cannot be ruled out going by past trends and multi-cornered contests. Parties that are not even registered in J&K, like SHS (UBT), RLD, Chandrasekhar Azad’s party, JD (U), etc., along with new J&K-based parties, ex-separatists, and independents, are fighting, making it a cocktail of a contest. 

The structure of the assembly, where regional parties JKNC and PDP do not have significant presence in Jammu, while national parties INC and BJP do not have significant influence in Kashmir valley, makes it a strong case for a hung verdict. The contests over the years have become tighter, with the average victory margin halving from 21% in 2002 to 12% in 2008.

'Others' were winners and runner-ups in 14 seats in 2008. While this has reduced considerably from 41 seats in 2002, it’s not enough for any party to cross the halfway mark. In 2014, 'others' were second runner-up in 12 seats and scored more votes than the margin of victory, acting as a spoiler for some of the other parties.

To sum up, the JKNC-INC alliance, with roots in both Kashmir Valley and Jammu regions, raises hopes for a clear mandate this time around. The history of hung assemblies, newer parties flexing their muscles and a record number of independents acting as vote cutters make it difficult to guess the winner.

Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was previously a corporate and investment banker

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of NDTV Profit or its editorial team.