Haryana Assembly Elections 2024: Regional Disparities To Impact Outcome In Jat Vs Non-Jat Contest

Hectic political activity has begun in Haryana, which is slated to go on vote along with the third phase of Jammu and Kashmir on Oct. 1. Alliances are being sealed and parties have started deliberations on candidate names. The state BJP unit has written to the Election Commission of India to defer the date of polling due to festivities and an extended weekend, which could negatively impact polling percentages. 

On the back of an improved performance in Lok Sabha, Congress is confident of winning the state, riding on 10 years of anti-incumbency against the Bharatiya Janata Party government. However, the party has its own share of problems facing factionalism and lack of unanimity on the Chief Minister name. While Jats supporting the party want CM face from Hooda family, Dalits want Kumari Shelja as CM face. 

In the 2014 Vidhan Sabha elections, held within six months of general elections, the BJP stormed to power in Haryana, dislodging the 10-year-old Bhupendra Singh Hooda government and winning 47 of the 90 seats, riding on the Modi wave and a general anti-Congress sentiment across the country. 

It adopted a strategy of playing anti-dominant caste politics by appointing Manohar Lal Khattar, from the OBC community, as CM instead of someone from the influential Jat community, which accounts for 27% of the population. This, in a way, sowed the seeds of discontent among the Jats against the BJP government. 

In 2019, the party could not retain its performance, winning 40 of the 90 seats and falling short of majority, primarily due to the aftermath of the Jat agitation in 2016, which demanded inclusion in the Other Backward Class category to make them eligible for affirmative action benefits. 

The party faced Jat fury but luckily the community's votes were split between Congress and the Jannayak Janta Party, which bagged 10 seats, coming to the rescue of the BJP. The two joined hands for a post-poll arrangement. JJP damaged the prospects of Congress in eight seats, bagging a higher vote share than the margin of victory. 

With growing Jat discontent post farmers, wrestlers and Agniveer protests, JJP—wary of facing Jat fury—withdrew support to the BJP government. After this, the BJP changed its CM, appointing Nayab Singh Saini, another person from the OBC community, for the top post.

In the 2024 general elections, the BJP and Congress won five seats each, a loss of five seats to the BJP and a corresponding gain to the grand old party. While the BJP was leading in 44, the Indian National Congress and Aam Aadmi Party alliance was ahead in 46 assembly segments out of a house strength of 90. 

Jats and Dalits voted against the BJP in large numbers. The five seats which Congress won were all from Jat land or where the Jat population is significant, like Rohtak, Hisar, Sirsa, Sonipat and Ambala. 

64% of Jats (+31%) and 68% of Scheduled Castes (+40%) backed the Congress party. Dalits joined the Congress party’s social coalition after a change of constitution statement by some BJP leaders and the grand old party succeeded in creating the narrative that the BJP will end reservations if it wins 400 seats.

There are six administrative divisions in Haryana—Ambala (14 seats), Faridabad (nine seats), Gurugram (14 seats), Karnal (13 seats), Rohtak and Hisar (20 seats each). Ambala is situated in the north-east, Faridabad and Gurugram in the south, Rohtak in central and Hisar and Karnal in the northern part of the state.

While Rohtak, Karnal and Hisar have significant Jat and SC populations, Gurugram has Ahir and SC, Faridabad has Gujjar and SC, and Ambala has a significant Brahmin, Khatri and SC population.

All of these zones behaved/voted differently in the 2019 Vidhan Sabha polls:

• Ambala witnessed a tight contest between the BJP and INC, with the former winning seven and the latter six seats. 

• BJP swept Faridabad (Gujjar land), winning seven of the nine seats on offer.

• In Gurugram (Ahir land) as well, the BJP was leading, winning eight of the 14 seats, with Congress netting five.

• Jat land Hisar witnessed a tight contest between JJP and BJP, with the former winning seven and the latter six seats. Congress was relegated to the third spot with four seats. JJP took over largely the INLD space in the region. 

• In Karnal, the BJP was ahead, winning seven of the 13 seats. 

• Congress swept Jat land Rohtak, winning 12 of the 20 seats. 

In terms of vote share:

• BJP’s best performance was in Hisar, followed by Ambala and Faridabad. 

• INC’s best performance was in Ambala, followed by Rohtak and Gurugram.

• JJP’s best performance was in Karnal, followed by Rohtak and Hisar. 

In 49 seats, the Jatav (SC subcaste) population is above 10%; 20 of these are in Hisar and Rohtak. In 57 seats, the Jat population is above 10%; 38 of these are in these two zones. In 10 seats, Gujjars are more than 10%; half of these are in Faridabad. In 10 seats, Ahirs are more than 10%; nine of these are in Gurugram. 

Congress hopes to replicate its general election success and create a social coalition of Jats, Dalits and Muslims, accounting for 54% of the population. While it consolidates Jat votes, INC is wary of making this election a Jat versus non-Jat contest. It aims to exploit the discontent among farmers (MSP guarantee), youth (unemployment) and women (wrestlers' protests) across caste groups to make a severe dent in the BJP's vote bank. 

On the other hand, BJP playing Jat versus non-Jat hopes to consolidate OBCs and upper castes while weaning away a section of Dalit (SC) voters. The party hopes Bahujan Samaj Party and Chandrasekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party, which have formed an alliance with Indian National Lok Dal and JJP, will also make some dent in Dalit vote of INC. 

It also hopes that INLD/JJP will make some dent in the Jat vote bank of INC. The Jat plus Dalit coalition is brittle, with a history of violence and distrust against each other, which the saffron party hopes to exploit. 

The Congress party would draw comfort from the fact that the BJP has a tendency of losing significant vote share and assembly leads in Vidhan Sabha polls held after Lok Sabha elections, as the name of PM Modi is not on the ticket. In the 2019 general elections, the BJP was leading in 79 assembly segments, while in the Vidhan Sabha polls, it could hold onto just half of these leads.