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Dolat Capital Report
UltraTech Cement Ltd.’s Q2 FY25 revenue/volume/realization came in-line but Ebitda, Ebitda/tonne and adjusted profit after tax were below our estimates.
We expect a revenue/Ebitda/adjusted profit after tax compound annual growth rate of 10.1%/17.6%/20.1% over FY24-27E led by 8.5%/14.4%/9.8% volume growth and -4.0%/ 2.0%/0.0% realization growth in FY25E/FY26E/FY27E.
In light of higher opex/tonne, we have downward revised our Ebitda estimates for FY25/FY26E by 10.0%/4.2% and introduced FY27E estimates.
Maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating with revised target price of 11,554 on 15.5 times consolidated FY27E enterprise value/Ebitda + 50% of FY27E capital work in progress + India Cement stake at 1x P/BV.
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