NCL India Q1 Results Review - Net Profit Largely Inline; Revenue/Ebitda Miss: Axis Securities

Axis Securities Report

NCL Industries Ltd. profit after tax increased to Rs 567 crore (up 37%/397% YoY/QoQ), largely in line with our estimates. PAT, excluding regulatory deferral income of Rs 98 crore, stood at Rs 469 crore, up 13%/22% YoY/QoQ.

Revenue was Rs 3,376 crore (up 2% YoY, down 5% QoQ), missing our estimates due to lower revenue from both the power segment (due to a lower blended tariff) and the mining segment (possibly due to lower e-auction prices).

Lower revenue and higher raw mateiral costs led to Ebitda of Rs 1,082 crore (down 9% YoY, up 80% QoQ), a 14% miss against our estimate.

Key risks to our estimates and target price

• Delay in execution of the ongoing projects like Ghatampur, Talabira Power Plants and ramp up in Lignite and Coal production.

• Delay in ramp-up of renewable power generation capacity

• Delay in recovery of dues from the state distribution companies (DISCOMS)

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