Uttar Pradesh
Why It Matters To Delhi
The country’s most populous state sends 31 Members of Parliament (MP) to the Rajya Sabha. One-third of these seats come up for election in 2018. A win in the assembly polls will help the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) increase its tally of 56 in the 245 seat upper house of Parliament. To be clear, 12 of these are nominated members and 233 seats are representatives of the states and 2 union territories.
Nine of India’s 14 Prime Ministers, including Narendra Modi, have been elected from Uttar Pradesh. Together they have governed India for more than 50 years.
The Numbers
The winning party or alliance needs to secure at least 202 members of legislative assembly (MLAs) to stake a claim to power.
The Key Players
- The present chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has had to navigate his way around divisions within his family and the Samajwadi Party. He was instrumental in forming an alliance with the Congress, just before the elections. Akhilesh Yadav’s father Mulayam Singh Yadav, himself a three-time chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, disapproved of this alliance.
- The BJP did not announce a chief ministerial candidate for the 2017 UP assembly elections. Its last chief minister in the state was Rajnath Singh, now India’s Union home minister and the number two in Modi’s cabinet.
- Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati has led UP on four occasions, of which only one was a full five-year term.
- The Congress has not tasted power in Uttar Pradesh since 1989. Its last chief minister in the state was ND Tiwari, who later went on to head the government in Uttarakhand, a state carved out of UP in 2000.
Uttarakhand
Why It Matters To Delhi
The BJP and the Congress have been in a straight fight in the state since its creation 16 years ago. Uttarakhand and neighbouring Himachal Pradesh are the only two states where the Congress is currently in power in north India.
The Numbers
The winning party needs at least 36 elected MLAs in a 70-member state assembly to form the government. No party has managed to come back to power for a second-straight term in Uttarakhand so far.
The Key Players
- The current Congress government began its term in 2012 under the chief ministership of Vijay Bahuguna, chosen by the party leadership in Delhi.
- Harish Rawat who emerged as the choice of the party’s MLAs, replaced him as chief minister in 2014.
- Bahuguna and his faction of the Congress party defected to the BJP in May 2016.
- The BJP’s previous chief ministers in the state, Bhagat Singh Koshyari, General BC Khanduri and Ramesh Pokhriyal, are not seen to be in the running for the top job if the party were to regain power this year.
Punjab
Why It Matters To Delhi
It is a three-cornered fight in Punjab, with the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) looking to dethrone the 10-year old Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP government in the state. The AAP wants to prove that its political model is scalable outside Delhi, betting on the one state that all its Lok Sabha MPs come from. A win for the Congress would secure some continued presence in north India.
The Numbers
The winning party has to secure at least 59 of the 117 assembly seats in the state.
The Key Players
- Captain Amarinder Singh is the Congress chief ministerial candidate. He led the state government from 2002 to 2007.
- Nearly 3 years after defeating the BJP’s Arun Jaitley in the Amritsar Lok Sabha election, Singh wants to be a giant-killer again. He is taking on two Akali Dal bigwigs, incumbent Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal and former chief of army staff General JJ Singh.
- The AAP has fielded its Lok Sabha MP Bhagwant Mann against Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal in the Jalalabad constituency.
Goa
Why It Matters To Delhi
The BJP is looking to retain power in a state that it won under the leadership of Manohar Parrikar in 2012. The present chief minister Laxmikant Parsekar took over when Parrikar was appointed Union defence minister in November 2014. The AAP is also looking to make a mark, positioning itself as an alternative to the binary fight between the Congress and the BJP.
The Numbers
21 seats make a majority in Goa’s 40-member assembly. That’s a number most governments in the state have struggled to cross. As a result, Goa had 12 chief ministers in 10 years from 1990 to 2000.
The Key Players
Parrikar and the BJP’s central leadership have made cryptic statements about his possible return to state politics. The AAP has declared the state’s former urban development secretary Elvis Gomes as its chief ministerial candidate. Digambar Kamat of the Congress is the only chief minister to have served a full term in the 30 years that Goa has enjoyed full statehood.
Manipur
Why It Matters To Delhi
The BJP is looking to expand its presence in the North East. Having defeated Tarun Gogoi in Assam last year, the party is looking to unseat another 15-year-old Congress government in the region.
The Numbers
The Congress has been in power with a healthy majority in the 60 member assembly. The BJP has a single MLA in the outgoing house, but a number of Congress leaders have defected to the party over the last 18 months.
The Key Players
Okram Ibobi Singh, the current chief minister, is the fourth-longest serving state leader in India. Civil rights activist Irom Sharmila, whose hunger strike seeking the repeal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act lasted 16 years, has entered the political fray and launched a new party. She’s contesting from the chief minister’s home turf.
Counting of votes for all seats across the 5 states will take place on March 11, 2017.
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