Mumbai's Poll Puzzle: Divided Shiv Sena, BJP Strategies And MNS Mysteries

Thackeray's faction, traditionally supported by the Marathi population, is now also courting Muslim voters. In the Lok Sabha elections, where Thackeray's candidates were fielded, Muslim votes were transferred to his camp. However, Thackeray is now in a precarious position over the BJP's Waqf Bill, which has stirred controversy. Rival parties mocking his Hindutva stance have challenged him to clarify his position on the bill. So far, Thackeray's stance remains ambiguous, leaving room for speculation.

On the other hand, the BJP is concentrating on Gujarati, Marwari, and other non-Marathi voters. Over the years, the party has inducted prominent north Indian leaders like Kripashanker Singh and Rajhans Singh to appeal to voters from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Given the sizable North Indian community in Mumbai, the BJP has been conducting several outreach programmes to woo them. The party and its ally Mahayuti will also highlight significant infrastructure projects, such as Atal Setu, Samruddhi Mahamarg, and the Coastal Road, to showcase their achievements during their tenure.

Another key factor in Mumbai’s political arena is Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. Although the MNS did not participate in the Lok Sabha elections, it plans to field candidates in the Vidhan Sabha polls. Before the Lok Sabha elections, Raj Thackeray had announced his "unconditional support" for the BJP, aiming to help Narendra Modi become the prime minister again. However, no such declaration has been made for the Vidhan Sabha elections. The political grapevine suggests that Raj Thackeray and the BJP might have a tacit understanding, with the MNS likely to dent Uddhav Thackeray’s voter base.

Both the NCPs, led by Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar, are also hoping to establish their legislative presence in Mumbai. The undivided NCP had just one MLA, Nawab Malik, in the city, who has switched to Ajit Pawar's camp recently. Both the rival parties are vying for a considerable number of seats in their respective coalitions.