Mumbais Poll Puzzle: Divided Shiv Sena, BJP Strategies And MNS Mysteries

Mumbai, the financial capital of India and home to the Hindi film industry, aka Bollywood, is all set to witness a fierce political contest in the upcoming Vidhan Sabha polls. With 36 Vidhan Sabha and six Lok Sabha seats, Mumbai stands as a distinct political region in Maharashtra, much like Konkan, Vidarbha, and Marathwada. Politicians across alliances, visiting TV studios for Ganpati Darshan, give sound bites that they have prayed to the Lord for their electoral success but only time will tell who will reap the benefits of divine intervention.

The political landscape of Mumbai can be better understood by analysing the figures from the last Lok Sabha polls. In the previous elections, the Mahayuti alliance, consisting of the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Eknath Shinde faction of Shiv Sena, secured only two of the six Lok Sabha seats, while the Maha Vikas Aghadi—the alliance of Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction), the Indian National Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party—took the remaining four.

Dividing these Lok Sabha seats based on their Vidhan Sabha segments, the MVA emerges as the dominant force in the city. In the 2019 Vidhan Sabha elections, the Mahayuti won 26 out of 36 seats, while the MVA secured only 11. However, as per the Lok Sabha results, the MVA was ahead in 21 seats, with Mahayuti trailing at 15.

Historically, Mumbai has been the stronghold of the Shiv Sena. But after the 2022 split in the party, the question on everyone's lips is: which faction of Shiv Sena will retain its dominance in the city—Eknath Shinde's or Uddhav Thackeray's? In the Lok Sabha elections, Thackeray's faction claimed three seats, while Shinde's secured only one, the Mumbai North-West seat, which is now being contested by Thackeray's camp in court over allegations of vote manipulation.

Also Read: Maharashtra Assembly Elections: The Vidarbha Factor

Thackeray's faction, traditionally supported by the Marathi population, is now also courting Muslim voters. In the Lok Sabha elections, where Thackeray's candidates were fielded, Muslim votes were transferred to his camp. However, Thackeray is now in a precarious position over the BJP's Waqf Bill, which has stirred controversy. Rival parties mocking his Hindutva stance have challenged him to clarify his position on the bill. So far, Thackeray's stance remains ambiguous, leaving room for speculation.

On the other hand, the BJP is concentrating on Gujarati, Marwari, and other non-Marathi voters. Over the years, the party has inducted prominent north Indian leaders like Kripashanker Singh and Rajhans Singh to appeal to voters from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Given the sizable North Indian community in Mumbai, the BJP has been conducting several outreach programmes to woo them. The party and its ally Mahayuti will also highlight significant infrastructure projects, such as Atal Setu, Samruddhi Mahamarg, and the Coastal Road, to showcase their achievements during their tenure.

Another key factor in Mumbai’s political arena is Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. Although the MNS did not participate in the Lok Sabha elections, it plans to field candidates in the Vidhan Sabha polls. Before the Lok Sabha elections, Raj Thackeray had announced his "unconditional support" for the BJP, aiming to help Narendra Modi become the prime minister again. However, no such declaration has been made for the Vidhan Sabha elections. The political grapevine suggests that Raj Thackeray and the BJP might have a tacit understanding, with the MNS likely to dent Uddhav Thackeray’s voter base.

Both the NCPs, led by Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar, are also hoping to establish their legislative presence in Mumbai. The undivided NCP had just one MLA, Nawab Malik, in the city, who has switched to Ajit Pawar's camp recently. Both the rival parties are vying for a considerable number of seats in their respective coalitions.

Also Read: Mahayuti Maneuvers: Can BJP Benefit From Ajit Pawar's Exit And Return?

Jitendra Dixit is an author and consulting editor of NDTV

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of NDTV Profit or its editorial team