Cyclone Alert For Tamil Nadu? Low-Pressure Area Over Bay of Bengal Likely To Intensify Into Deep Depression

Cyclone Alert For Chennai and Puducherry: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday predicted a deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining East Equatorial Indian Ocean in the next 24 hours, bringing heavy to very heavy rainfall in Chennai and Puducherry from Nov. 25 to Nov. 27.

The wind speed is likely to touch up to 65 kilometres per hour gusting 75 kilometres per hour between Nov. 25 and Nov. 26, according to the weather agency.

According to the IMD forecast, a well-marked low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining East Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) moved west-northwestwards and it is likely to intensify into a deep depression in the next 24 hours.

"Yesterday's well marked low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining East EquatorialIndian Ocean moved west-northwestwards, intensified into a depression and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 24th November 2024 over central part of South Bay of Bengal and adjoining East Equatorial Indian Ocean near latitude 5.0°N and longitude 85.3°E, about 600 km southeast of Trincomalee, 880 km southeast of Nagapattinam, 980 km southeast of Puducherry and 1050 km south-southeast of Chennai," it said.

"It is likely to move northwestwards and intensify into a deep depression during the next 24 hours. Thereafter, it is likely to continue to move northwestwards towards Tamil Nadu-Sri Lanka coasts during subsequent 2 days," the IMD added.

The cyclone is likely to bring flooding, waterlogging and disruption of traffic in urban areas. Damage to kutcha roads is also expected.

The IMD on Nov. 24 said that the maximum sustained wind speed associated with the low pressure system is 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts. Sea condition is likely to remain moderate to rough over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining east EIO.

The western disturbance is now being seen as a trough in middle tropospheric levels roughly along Longitude 68° E and north of Latitude 32°N, the weather department added on the day.

The IMD further indicated strong westerly wind anomaly over south Bay of Bengal and easterly wind anomaly to its north over south and adjoining central Bay of Bengal during Nov. 24 to Nov. 30.

The environmental features are likely to contribute positively to cyclogenesis over the south Bay of Bengal, it said.

If the deep depression intensifies into a cyclone, it will be named as Fengal, according to the rules of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on naming cyclones.

The IMD said that different weather models are predicting different paths and outcomes as the cyclone approaches the coast.

"Hence it is inferred that the well-marked low pressure area over Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining East EIO is likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression over central parts of south Bay of Bengal on 25th November. Thereafter, it is likely to move northwestwards towards Tamil Nadu-Sri Lanka coasts during the subsequent 2 days," it said in its daily bulletin on Nov. 24.

The IMD predicted squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is very likely to prevail over southwest Bay of Bengal, adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal and along and off Sri Lanka coast on Nov. 25.

On Nov. 26, wind speeds of 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is very likely to prevail over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal, along and off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts . It is likely to increase and become 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph on Nov. 27 and Nov. 28 over the same region.

Coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry are very likely to experience light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places between Nov. 25 and Nov. 27. Heavy rainfall is also expected in these areas on Nov. 28.

Coastal Andhra Pradesh is likely to experience light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places on Nov. 27 and Nov. 28.

Fishermen have been advised to return to coasts on Nov. 25. They have been asked not to venture along and off Tamil Nadu-Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts on Nov. 26, Nov. 27, and Nov. 28.