Cyclone Alert For Chennai? Depression Over Bay Of Bengal To Hit Tamil Nadu Coast On Oct. 17

Cyclone Alert For Chennai: As per the latest update shared by India Meteorological Department (IMD), the depression over the southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 12 kmph during past 6 hours and lay centered at 0830 hours IST of today, October 16 over the same region, about 320 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 350 km east of Puducherry and 400 km southeast of Nellore (Andhra Pradesh).

It is likely to move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu - South Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore, close to Chennai during the early morning of October 17.

According to IMD, there is a highly favourable chance of cyclogenesis during the next 48 hours due to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Kelwin Waves along with Rossby waves. Other model forecasts, besides IMD GFS, suggest it could escalate into a severe cyclonic storm by October 16, potentially making landfall near Chennai by October 17.

If the depression intensifies then the system will be called Cyclone Dana, a name proposed by Qatar, in line with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) guidelines on naming cyclones.

Various weather models are projecting differing outcomes and paths as it approaches the coast.

As per IMD GFS (forecast model), the depression is likely to move into eastcentral on October 19 and move further west-northwards till October 22.

NCUM group of models does not indicate any intensification of the system beyond a depression and are also indicating the movement of the system towards the north Tamil Nadu coast and the emergence of the low-pressure area into eastcentral on October 18.

ECMWF model is also indicating a depression to form on October 16 and further weakening into a low marked pressure area. The path projected by this model indicates the system will move west-northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and South Andhra coast on October 17.

The Met Department has issued a red alert with the possibility of heavy to very heavy rainfall and extremely heavy rainfall very likely to occur over Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Chengalpattu and Chennai districts.

Red alert has also been issued over North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

The Met Department issued an orange alert with the possibility of heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely to occur over Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Kallakurichi, Perambalur, Ariyalur, Mayiladuthurai, Nagapattinam, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Cuddalore, Villupuram and Vellore districts, Puducherry and Karaikal area.

The Met Department issued a yellow alert with the possibility of heavy rainfall very likely to occur over isolated places at Tirupattur, Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Salem, Tiruchirappalli and Pudukkottai districts.

Rough to very rough sea conditions are likely to prevail over Southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal and along Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and South Andra Pradesh coasts, considering these conditions fishermen are advised not to venture into the Bay of Bengal till October 17.

Heavy rains continued to lash Chennai on Tuesday, flooding several parts of the city. Triggered by a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal, the downpour created knee-deep water on roads, stranding residents, causing major traffic disruptions.

The state government has declared holidays for schools and colleges in four districts—Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram and Chengalpattu. Private offices have been advised to allow employees to work from home or engage minimal staff during this period. Essential services, including police, fire and rescue, municipal administration and transportation of essential goods, will continue to operate normally.