Despite the shortened week, markets saw considerable activity—unfortunately, it was unfavourable for the bulls. With the bears in control through the last week, analysts expect Nifty 50 to see further volatility, with the September swing low of 24,750 acting as support levels.
The charts show a long bearish candle indicating further weakness from current levels, according to analysts. The 20 Exponential Moving Average, or EMA, which coincides with Friday's high near 25,500 will act as a stiff resistance, with 25,300 being the immediate resistance before that.
"With prices closing just at the key 50 EMA support, this has been one of the sharpest weekly drops in recent times, forming a strong bearish candle on the weekly chart, signalling more potential downside ahead," said Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical Analyst at Angel One.
Any upside from 25,000 could indicate one pullback rally for Nifty 50, said Amol Athawale, Vice President-Technical Research, Kotak Securities. However, if the markets fall below this level, they may retest the level of 24,750-24,650, he added.
The current technical trend suggests a "sell on rise" strategy, with fresh buying opportunities likely to emerge only if the Nifty decisively moves above the 25,500 zone, according to Mandar Bhojane, Technical Research Analyst, Choice Broking.
The Bank Nifty, which saw a 4% correction last week, will see 51,500 act as a key support zone. However, Athawale also stated that the index could see one technical rebound.
"If index managed to defend 51,090-51,000 levels, then a relief rally towards 52,000-52,500 could be possible," said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd.
The GIFT Nifty, an early indicator of the Nifty 50 Index’s performance in India, was up 16 or 0.06% at 25,258.5 as of 06:34 a.m.
F&O Cues
Nifty October futures down by 1.18% to 25,173 at a premium of 159 points.
Nifty October futures open interest up by 3.4%.
Nifty Bank October futures down by 0.89% to 51,871 at a premium of 409 points.
Nifty Bank October futures open interest up 6.5%.
Nifty Options Oct. 10 Expiry: Maximum call open interest at 27,950 and maximum put open interest at 23,100.
Bank Nifty Options Oct. 9 Expiry: Maximum call open Interest at 62,000 and maximum put open interest at 50,500.
Securities in ban period: Bandhan Bank, Birla Soft, GNFC, Granules, Hindustan Copper, Manappuram, RBL Bank.
FII/DII Activity
Overseas investors stayed net sellers of Indian equities on day for fifth straight day on Friday. Foreign portfolio investors offloaded stocks worth Rs 9,896.95 crore, according to provisional data from the National Stock Exchange. This is the sixth highest single day selling by the FPIs so far this year.
Domestic institutional investors stayed net buyers for the ninth session and bought equities worth Rs 8,905.08 crore, the NSE data showed. This is the fourth highest single day buying so far in 2024.
Market Recap
India's benchmark equity indices recorded their worst weekly loss in over two years amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Globally, market participants are awaiting the release of US payroll data for September.
Both the Nifty and Sensex fell more than 4% this week, their worst fall since the week ended June 13, 2022, led by losses in Hero MotoCorp, Shriram Finance, and Axis Bank.
Friday's session was volatile as the benchmarks saw big swings from an intraday high of 1% to a fall of 1%. The NSE Nifty 50 closed 0.79%, or 200.25 points, lower at 25049.85, and the BSE Sensex fell 0.98%, or 808.65 points, to close at 81688.45.
Major Stocks In News
Titan: The Tata-Group managed firm in its provisional business update for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 reported a 25% year-on-year growth in standalone revenue. During the quarter, it added a net total of 75 stores. The jewellery segment achieved a 26% increase year-on-year, while the watches and wearables segment grew by 20%. The Eye Care segment saw a 6% year-on-year rise, and the Carat Lane business experienced a 28% growth compared to the previous year.
IndusInd Bank: Net advances of the bank rose by 13% year-on-year, reaching Rs 3.57 lakh crore in the second quarter of fiscal 2025. Meanwhile, deposits surged by 15% to Rs 4.13 lakh crore for the quarter ending September 2024. The CASA ratio decreased to 35.9%, down from 36.7% in the previous quarter. As of Sept. 30, 2024, retail deposits and deposits from small business customers totaled Rs 1.81 lakh crore, up from Rs 1.74 lakh crore as of June 30, 2024.
Federal Bank: In the July-September quarter of 2024, the bank's total deposits rose by 15.6% year-on-year to Rs 2.69 lakh crore, according to provisional data. Customer deposits increased by 16% to Rs 2.53 lakh crore. The lender's gross advances surged by 19.3%, reaching Rs 2.34 lakh crore, up from Rs 1.95 lakh crore in the same period last year. The CASA ratio fell by 110 basis points to 30.07%, down from 31.17% a year earlier.
Global Cues
Most stocks in the Asia-Pacific region began the week higher after jobs data in the US reinforced bets of a soft landing.
The Japanese benchmark Nikkei 225 was 862 points or 2.29% higher at 38,732, while Australia's S&P ASX 200 was 7 points or 0.09% higher at 8,159 as of 05:38 a.m.
Traders will keep an eye out for the escalating tensions in West Asia as Israel would retaliate against Tehran for a missile attack last week. Brent fell below $78 a barrel after rising the most since January 2023 last week.
The positive start to the Asian stocks came after traders cut the expectation of a large rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting by the US Federal Reserve as the data hinted at an economy poised for a soft landing.
US job growth for September last month topped estimates growing by the most in six months. Last month's non-farm payrolls rose 2.54 lakh versus an estimated addition of 1.50 lakh. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for the month was recorded at 4.1% against the estimate of 4.2%.
Stocks in the US closed last week with gains after a stronger-than-expected jobs report. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.90% and 1.22%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed by 0.81%.
Brent crude was trading 0.53% lower at $77.64 a barrel as of 5:57 a.m. IST. West Texas Intermediate was down 0.46% at $74.04.
Key Levels
US Dollar Index at 102.49
US 10-year bond yield at 3.99%.
Brent crude down 0.62% at $77.57 per barrel.
Bitcoin was 1.12% up at $63,321.52
Gold spot was down 0.14% at $2,649.8
Money Market
The Indian rupee closed unchanged on Friday, with the Reserve Bank of India actively intervening to prevent the currency from falling below Rs 84 amid ongoing foreign portfolio investor outflows from domestic equities, spurred by rising tensions in the Middle East.
The rupee closed at Rs 83.97 against the US dollar, matching its Thursday closing value, as reported by Bloomberg.
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