Market To Focus On Macro Data, Global Trends, Say Analysts

Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the U.S. Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said.

In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the U.S. Indian inflation is expected to rise, while U.S. inflation will remain steady.

"Indian industrial and manufacturing production is also expected, while consensus expects expansion. However, the outcome of the awaited Fed policy meeting will be pivotal in shaping market sentiments," Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services Ltd., said.

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 303.91 points, or 0.44%, to scale its new peak of 69,825.60, while the broader index Nifty breached the crucial 21,000 mark and hit the highest intra-day level of 21,006.10 on Friday.

The market achieved an all-time high, driven by robust domestic GDP growth. Despite the RBI maintaining the policy status quo, an upgraded GDP growth forecast for FY24 (6.5% to 7%) boosted investor confidence, Nair said.

On Friday, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India decided to keep the benchmark repurchase (repo) rate at 6.5%.

The central bank raised its forecast for economic growth to 7% from 6.5%, maintaining India's position as the world's fastest-growing major economy, after a stronger-than-expected 7.6% growth in the July-September quarter.

Mid- and small-caps continued to outperform, driven by a healthy economic outlook, strong Q2 earnings, and corrections in oil prices, Nair added.

Last week, the BSE benchmark rallied 2,344.41 points or 3.47%.

"Markets remained upbeat for yet another week and gained nearly 3.5%. After a strong gap-up start, benchmark indices moved from strengthen to strengthen and finally settled around the week’s high," Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president of technical research at Religare Broking Ltd., said.

Global trends, money injected by foreign portfolio investors, the outcome of state elections, and RBI's interest rate decision were the major drivers behind the markets' rally last week.

Foreign portfolio investors injected Rs 26,505 crore into the Indian equity markets in the first six trading sessions of this month on expectations of political stability, after the BJP stormed to power in three major states and robust economic growth.

"We maintain our positive view on markets despite the overbought conditions and suggest participants look for buying opportunities on dips."

"Nifty has the potential to test the 21,200-21,500 zone and expects the index to hold the 20,300-20,550 zone in case of profit taking. Among the key sectoral indices, we reiterate our preference for banking and IT majors and suggest staying selective in the others," Mishra said.