US Initial Jobless Claims Tick Up, Remaining At Pre-Covid Levels

(Bloomberg) -- Applications for US unemployment benefits picked up last week, remaining near average pre-pandemic levels.

Initial claims increased by 3,000 to 221,000 in the week ended Nov. 2. That was roughly in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, rose to 1.89 million in the previous week, the highest level since November 2021, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.  The recent increase likely reflected lingering impacts from storms and strikes last month, as well as manufacturing job cuts.

Weekly filings have experienced swings in the last few weeks due to Hurricanes Milton and Helene, which pummeled parts of the Southeast. At the same time, a weeks-long strike by Boeing Co. workers led to temporary layoffs, including at idled suppliers.

But as the storm impact has faded, new claims have fallen. Boeing workers struck a deal to end the strike on Tuesday, meaning the spillover from the movement on the aircraft maker’s suppliers should soon wane as well.

"Initial jobless claims are running at a similar level to last year, but softening labor-market conditions are better reflected in continuing claims, which were 69k higher than a year earlier."

—Eliza Winger

To read the note, see here.

The four-week moving average of new applications, a metric that helps smooth out volatility, fell to 227,250.

Before adjusting for seasonal factors, initial claims rose last week. California, Michigan and Ohio saw the largest gains, while applications dropped in Florida and Georgia.

Michigan saw a large increase in weekly filings during the last two periods. The jump in the week ended Oct. 26 was due to layoffs in manufacturing, according to the release, which didn’t provide further details.

Federal Reserve officials are expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point following their two-day policy meeting Thursday. As inflation has moderated, policymakers have been watching the labor market closely after making a half-point cut in September.