Road To 2024: Five Battleground States Hold Keys To Government Formation In Centre

The battle for 2024 enters its last leg, with polling on 57 seats in Phase 7 due on June 1. While the BJP-led NDA aims to score a hat-trick of terms for PM Narendra Modi, opposition INDIA bloc hopes to topple the government riding on anti-incumbency and burning issues like price rise and unemployment. 

The social media is abuzz on whether BJP will get as strong a majority as 2019, with analysts with leanings towards the Congress predicting the saffron party will fall short of numbers. To counter, pro-BJP analysts have predicted a status quo sort of result.

Meanwhile the markets have exhibited nervousness with Sensex falling from 75,038.15 on April 10 to 72,404.17 on May 9, before rising again to 75,390.5 on May 27.

BJP won 81% of seats in North India (155/191) and 65% of seats in West of India (51/78). With allies, BJP swept the North, winning 180/191 seats, and in the West 69/81 seats, accounting for 94% and 85% seats, respectively. 

In the East and the South, it could win 47% and 23% of the seats, respectively. The party didn’t have many allies in these two regions. Contrary to popular belief, BJP was the largest party in South of India as well with 30 seats, Congress a close second with 28 seats. 

In 2014, the BJP had won 282 seats—of which the BJP lost 26 seats in 2019—a loss of 10% as it had maxed out in 2019. Similarly, since the party has won 100% of the seats in five states—Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal, Gujarat and Haryana—representing 52 seats. 

In 11 states, which account for 239 seats, BJP won 75% plus seats—211. So, there is a chance of some losses in these states, which is but natural. As per trend of 2014 to 2019, 10% of the 2019 tally of 303, which is around 30 seats, could be a normal loss. Like in 2019, the BJP hopes to compensate for these losses from other states. 

There are five states, which will decide the course of 2024 elections. These states account for 238 seats and 44% of Lok Sabha strength. The five deciding states are Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Bihar and West Bengal. These are called battleground states because both NDA and INDIA bloc hope to make gains in these states.

The NDA hopes to gain seats in UP and Bengal, while INDIA bloc in all five states, as BJP and allies have maxed out. NDA won 188 of these 238 seats in 2019, almost 80% of the total strength of these states. 

BJP has developed a three-tier strategy for 2024 general elections, called “RAM”. R stands for Regain (seats won in 2014 and lost in 2019), A stands for Attain (gain seats in states largely in east and south), and M stands for Maintain (retain as many seats as possible from its 2019 tally).

So, it’s largely a “maintain” plus “attain” strategy for BJP in these battleground states. BJP needs to maintain the 2019 tally and gain seats in UP (epicenter of Ram Mandir movement) plus Bengal (epicenter of CAA/NRC).

BJP had won 145 seats in 2019, out of these 238. Of these, 96 seats were won with a vote share of more than 50%. 43 seats were won by allies in these five states, mainly JD(U) 16, LJP 6, SHS 18, etc. In 42 of these seats, BJP was runner-up where it hopes to make gains. 

The INDIA bloc hopes to make gains due to the fact that BJP/NDA has maxed out in Bihar, Karnataka, Maharashtra and UP. The contest has become somewhat localised due to change of allies and other factors as discussed in detail below. 

In UP, NDA had won 64 and Mahagathbandhan of SP-BSP 15 seats, while Congress won one seat in 2019. UP is the only state where BJP has a potential for maximum gains (16 seats) due to the inauguration of Ram Mandir and it has set a target to win 80 out of 80 seats. 

Mayawati’s BSP is contesting separately and BJP hopes it could split the opposition vote. SP has tied up with Congress, a similar alliance failed badly in the 2017 Vidhan Sabha polls. 

To neutralise the Hindutva and Modi factor, it is attempting to make the contest localised, exploiting local level anti-incumbency against MPs in UP, which has lowest denial of tickets ratio for BJP. It has also given tickets to more OBC candidates than BJP to make a dent in its non-Yadav OBC support, trying to shed its Muslim-Yadav party image. 

29 seats were decided on a victory margin of less than 10% vote share, 22 won by NDA and seven by opposition parties in 2019.  

In Bihar, NDA won 39 of the 40 seats in 2019. While the gharwapsi of Nitish Kumar into NDA has bolstered the position of BJP, the constant flip-flops of the CM has dented his image to some extent. He has emerged as the weak link of NDA and 16 seats, which JDU won in 2019, has been marked by the INDIA bloc. Nitish Kumar is facing Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD in 10 of these seats. 

Similarly, Congress is the weak link of INDIA bloc. It is contesting on nine seats and facing BJP in five of them. Tejashwi is trying to drum up support among youth, riding on the unemployment issue. He is taking credit for jobs generated by the state government when he was the Deputy CM. 

Like Akhilesh, he too, is trying to make a dent in the non-Yadav OBC vote base of BJP-JDU. NDA is hoping the mahila (women) factor will work for it due to schemes and prohibition. 

Six seats were decided on a victory margin of less than 10% vote share, five won by NDA and one by UPA/INDIA bloc in 2019. 

In Maharashtra, NDA won 41 of the 48 seats with UPA winning seven. In the past five years, the politics of the state has changed completely. Shiv Sena and NCP have split into two factions. Uddhav faction and Sharad Pawar in alliance with Congress, and Shinde faction with Ajit Pawar in alliance with BJP. 

Shinde and Ajit have received official symbols from ECI and this could lead to a loss of a few votes in a tight contest for Uddhav/Sharad factions because of brand recall value. There are 13 seats where both Sena factions are battling it out for the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray. On two seats, the Pawar family is facing each other. Uddhav and Sharad are betting on the sympathy factor, while NDA on the Modi factor to sail it through. 

Here again, BJP has marked Congress for a fight, on 15 seats there is a BJP versus INC battle. Seamless transfer of votes is important in any alliance. Will Hindutva voters of Sena back Congress/NCP, will Muslim voters of Congress/NCP back Sena?

13 seats were decided on a victory margin of less than 10% vote share, eight won by NDA and five by opposition parties in 2019.

In Karnataka, NDA won 26 of the 28 seats. BJP has allied with JD(S) to bolster its prospects in the Old Mysore region to build a strong coalition of Lingayats and Vokkaligas. However, the coming together of two influential castes has the potential of leading to counter consolidation of minorities, backwards, dalits and tribals. 

The Prajwal Revanna sex scandal has also marred the alliance prospects to some extent in Phase 2 of 14 seats. Congress party hopes to make a significant dent in BJP tally due to implementation of guarantees, which have received good traction among women and poor. In a way, it is emerging as a state beneficiary battle versus a central beneficiary battle.

10 seats were decided on a victory margin of less than 10% vote share, all won by NDA in 2019.

In the mother of all battles, BJP won 18 of the 42 seats in 2019, TMC 22 and Congress two. BJP gained at the expense of Left parties, which have been completely decimated. BJP hopes to make a dent in women's support for Mamata due to the Sandeshkhali incident. The implementation of the CAA has the potential of polarising the atmosphere in the state, which has around 30% Muslim population—twice the national average. 

While Modi is popular and BJP has been able to make caste an issue in some regions of the state, which is a hotbed of class politics, he faces a fierce competitor in Mamata who is equally popular. 

24 seats were decided on a victory margin of less than 10% vote share, 11 each won by BJP and TMC, two by INC in 2019.

Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was previously a corporate and investment banker

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of NDTV Profit or its editorial team.