Exit Polls Project Third Term For Modi, Indicate India Votes For Stability, Continuity
The National Democratic Alliance is projected to win 365 seats, as per poll of polls by NDTV Data Centre.
Exit polls for world’s biggest elections are out and directionally, there is consensus that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to return for a third term. Exit polls are normally a better barometer than opinion polls and if not quite accurate in terms of seats, they do suggest the direction of the trend. If true, then this would mean that India has voted for stability and continuity.
The one-sided elections had turned into a close contest as per social media chatter, but polls indicate that without a social base, it is difficult to win elections. Social media can get you views but you need shoulders on the ground to get votes for the party and candidate where opposition could have been seen lacking.
As per poll of polls by NDTV Data Centre, the National Democratic Alliance is projected to win 365 seats and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance 146 seats. The ranges are bizarre, the high and low for the NDA is 415 (Chanakya) and 281 (Dainik Bhaskar). The high and low for INDIA bloc is 107 (Chanakya) and 169 (News Nation).
Gains, Losses
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA is expected to gain in the south and the east largely. It is expected to gain seats in Andhra Pradesh due to alliance with the Telugu Desam Party, in Odisha and West Bengal where the prime minister laid special focus. If the numbers hold true, then this will be the second consecutive time after 2019 that the BJP is gaining seats in these two states where regional parties are strong. It is also seen gaining few seats in Uttar Pradesh, the epicentre of the Ram Temple movement.
On expected lines, it is seen losing seats in Bihar (where it had maxed out and Nitish Kumar emerged as a weak link), Maharashtra (where its new allies Eknath Shinde faction of Sena and Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party are expected to lose seats) and due to local factors in Rajasthan (Rajput anger) and Haryana (Jat anger). It is also losing a few seats in Karnataka due to maxing out in 2019 and the Indian National Congress repeating some of its gains of state elections 2023 where the BJP received a drubbing.
Crux Of Exit Polls
Two key numbers to observe in the exit polls, which would have an impact on results are:
Which are the states where the Congress party is defeating the BJP?
Which are the states (in addition to 2019) where INDIA is defeating the NDA?
The BJP faced Congress in direct contests in 190 seats in 2019 and won 175 of these. If the Congress or the INDIA bloc had to win 2019, they had to win more of such seats and defeat the BJP in some states. The Congress was hopeful of getting the better of the BJP in Haryana and Karnataka.
In Haryana, Jat anger due to farmer/wrestler protests, split with the Jannayak Janta Party and exodus of few MPs from the BJP had given hope to the Congress that it would win more seats than the BJP. However, the poll of polls suggest that the BJP is still likely to win 7 (-3) and the Congress three seats as the contest may have become Jat vs non-Jat.
In Karnataka, the Congress was banking on implementation of its guarantees to make a severe dent in the BJP's 2019 tally of 25. However, the poll of polls show Karnataka is maintaining its distinction of voting differently in the Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha elections. While beneficiaries laud the Siddaramaiah government, any benefit is likely to accrue in state elections and not general elections.
The INDIA bloc was expected to inflict damage to the NDA in four states — UP, Bihar, Maharashtra and West Bengal. In Mamata Banerjee's turf, the BJP seems marginally ahead in a tight battle. In none of these states, has INDIA got better of the NDA as per exit polls. In Maharashtra and Bihar, the BJP-led NDA has been able to contain losses through damage-control exercise, while in UP, the sheer size of lead and the Bahujan Samaj Party contesting separately seems to play spoilsport to INDIA's chances.
Without the Congress defeating the BJP in any state convincingly and INDIA bloc beating the NDA in Maharashtra/Bihar, the contest was always a tough battle for the opposition.
Why Can Exit Polls Go Wrong?
A disclaimer, exit polls are not exact polls. In the 2004 general elections, all exit polls were horribly wrong. While pollsters go about scientific sampling, voters may or may not respond in the same scientific manner. For example, some voting groups may be less fearful of participating in such surveys, others may not. Further, some, if not many voters, may actually lie (for whatever reason) to the interviewers.
The pollster then needs to correct for this and very often uses historic information. Without getting into the science of it, using historic information is fraught with many problems — turnout, new voters, and consistency of polling booths. The opposition is hopeful of a repeat of 2004, however, in 1999, the BJP’s average margins was around 10%, in 2019, it was around 20%, indicating high margins, difficult to swing the other way.
Exit polls quench our curiosity and anxiety between the last day of the election and the counting day. Even if they are wrong, it eases the curious mind and probably ensures proper sleep, in that sense, it is no different from sleeping pills during days of anxiety. It is no different from sleeping pills during days of anxiety. So, enjoy the tamasha but wait for exact results on June 4.
Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was previously a corporate and investment banker Disclaimer:
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of NDTV Profit or its editorial team.
