It’s That Time Of The Year: Yet Another Climate COP

It’s another November, so cue the global fanfare for COP29, where world leaders will again gather, this time in Baku, to discuss how much more climate ambition they could theoretically muster. The front-page story: “Climate Finance Soars to USD 1.5 Trillion!” — an eye-popping number until one realises that it’s not nearly enough.

According to the Climate Policy Initiative’s latest report, global climate finance flows may have doubled since 2018, yet they still account for a mere 1% of global GDP. So yes, headline-worthy, but hardly reality-altering.

Here’s the problem: $1.5 trillion isn’t going to keep us within a 1.5°C warming scenario. The CPI report suggests we’ll need five times this amount every single year by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement targets and avoid catastrophic climate damage. And that’s assuming we don’t waste it on the ever-resilient fossil fuel industry, which, by the way, saw investments soar beyond the $1 trillion mark last year. As subsidies for fossil fuel consumption multiply—particularly in emerging economies—it seems that the message of “transition” is being interpreted as “let’s keep up the old game a bit longer.”

Two other reports out this week paint a grim picture for the world’s climate leaders as they prepare to gather in Baku for COP29. The World Meteorological Organisation’s latest findings confirm what many feared: 2023 was officially the hottest year on record, with greenhouse gas levels hitting new peaks, setting the stage for even higher temperatures in the years ahead.

Carbon dioxide is now accumulating in our atmosphere at a pace unseen in human history, surging over 10% in just two decades. Another sobering report from The Lancet Countdown highlights the immediate health impacts of this climate crisis, with record temperatures driving a rise in heat-related illnesses and fatalities, particularly among those over 65, whose mortality rate from heat has spiked by 167% in the last 30 years.

With the stakes higher than ever, COP29 will serve as a critical moment for countries to lay out updated national climate action plans. Unfortunately, the gap between current efforts and necessary actions remains yawning. The UNFCCC’s recent analysis indicates that current pledges, if followed, would only reduce emissions by 2.6% from 2019 levels by 2030. Compare this with the IPCC’s target—a 43% reduction from 2019 levels to stay within the 1.5°C threshold—and it’s clear we’re far off course. While some developed nations have taken steps to phase out coal, the global reliance on fossil fuels, particularly in fast-growing economies like India and China, continues to climb. Even in wealthier nations, the fossil fuel addiction lingers, though repackaged as “cleaner” energy through sources like natural gas, which, while lower in emissions than coal, still falls short of true sustainability.

But perhaps the most frustrating part of this journey is the long-term promises overshadowing immediate action. Developed countries, while committing to ambitious goals like Net Zero, have faced criticism for sidestepping urgent change. “Lower emissions” fossil fuels and 2050 pledges sound impressive, but they do little to stop the rising tide of climate impacts happening right now. As climate leaders convene in Baku, they will have to grapple with the widening gap between ambitious rhetoric and half-hearted policies, which, if left unchecked, may amount to little more than a delaying tactic in the fight against climate catastrophe.

But let’s return to COP29 and the renewed chorus of lofty climate goals that politicians will present. We’ll likely hear about the New Collective Quantified Goal, a term that aspires to align finance flows with low-emission pathways. It sounds like a step forward, though we can imagine the next step is forming a committee to define what exactly “low-emission pathway” means. Meanwhile, emerging markets and developing economies face an unthinkable predicament: they’ll need a climate finance influx worth 6.5% of their GDP by 2030 to simply stay on track.

Now, if the past is precedent, COP29 might be another exercise in spectacle, a summit meant to “show solidarity,” but with commitments that unravel long before the ink dries. Will we see an actionable roadmap? CPI’s report is calling for nothing less than a revolution in climate finance, yet policymakers seem determined to focus on incremental steps. What we need is an all-hands-on-deck approach that addresses innovation, scale, allocation, and multi-stakeholder engagement with the urgency that a global crisis demands.

As we all know, failure to act now will be exponentially costly. Delaying meaningful action isn’t just an environmental threat; it’s an economic catastrophe waiting to happen. By 2100, losses from climate inaction are projected to be five times higher than the finance required to mitigate it by mid-century. In simple terms, doing nothing will break the bank. And for those who insist climate finance is too expensive, well, what exactly do they suppose the bill will look like when flooded coastlines, scorched farmland, and mass migrations become the new global status quo? But then, who will tell this to the President-Elect of the largest democracy in the world, as he does not believe in climate change?

The inconvenient truth is that this trillion-dollar figure isn’t a victory—it’s a down payment on overdue action. In Baku, we can only hope that COP29 ushers in more than declarations. Because at the current rate, the only thing the world will achieve is another summit to discuss how far we’ve fallen behind. But anyway, in the long term, we will all be dead.

Srinath Sridharan is a policy researcher and corporate advisor.

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