Assembly Elections In J&K, Haryana: First Test For NDA Post Lok Sabha Polls

The Election Commission announced the dates for Jammu & Kashmir and Haryana on Friday, blowing the bugle for the assembly election season of 2024. While J&K will vote in three phases, Haryana will vote in a single phase, with the results to be declared on Oct. 4. 

This is the first electoral battle after the general elections, where the Bharatiya Janata Party suffered losses though retaining power for a record third time, while a united opposition made handsome gains. 

J&K voters who broke polling percentage records in the general elections are looking forward with optimism to have their local government in place, with elections happening after 10 years. 

This will be the first assembly elections after the abrogation of Article 370, with the Modi government fulfilling its promise of restoring democracy in the state. To note, the Supreme Court had put a deadline of Sept. 30 to hold elections in the state. Two more states, Maharashtra and Jharkhand are due for polls by the end of the year.

These results are likely to have national implications. If the opposition INDIA bloc wins more states, it will highlight that there is momentum against the Modi government.

An NDA victory will show Modi making a strong comeback, silencing critics who have been writing him off. Losses for the National Democratic Alliance could weaken the BJP's control over the coalition government at the centre.

While J&K is under President's Rule, Haryana has a BJP government in place. Interestingly, both threw a hung verdict in the previous elections, Haryana in 2019 and J&K in 2014.

In the Lok Sabha election, the BJP-led NDA suffered losses in Haryana. The NDA had swept the state and bagged all 10 seats in 2019, but honours were shared 5-5 in 2024 with the INDIA bloc, comprising the Indian National Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party, making significant gains. 

In J&K, of the five seats, excluding Ladakh, the INDIA bloc, comprising the National Conference, and the NDA shared honours with two seats each, with an Independent winning a seat. The Peoples Democratic Party could not win a single seat and polled less than 10% votes.

The orientation in state polls becomes highly local and the premium that Prime Minister Narendra Modi fetches the BJP/NDA in national elections also dwindles to a certain extent in state elections and the party needs to be wary of this fact.

This is evidenced by the fact that in most state elections following the general elections, the BJP tends to witness a reduction in vote share.

The BJP received a scare in the 2019 elections in Haryana where it could not get a simple majority of its own, bagging 40 of the 90 seats, a loss of seven seats, where 45 is the simple majority.

To its luck, the Jannayak Janta Party, led by Dushyant Chautala, splinter party of Chautala family, won 10 seats, splitting the Jat vote and stopping the Congress, which got 31 seats from crossing the halfway mark.

In a post-poll arrangement with the JJP, the BJP formed the government in 2019. However, farmer and wrestler protests forced the JJP to break ties with the BJP ahead of the general elections 2024, fearing a community backlash. It couldn’t win a single seat in the Lok Sabha polls, and polled less than 1% votes

Meanwhile, the BJP replaced Khattar as the chief minister, installing Nayab Singh Saini, another OBC, to negate anti-incumbency building against its government.

The Congress led INDIA block, riding on gains in general elections, is confident of winning Haryana on the back of support of the influential Jat community who are around 25% of the population. Around 64% of the Jats backed the Congress-AAP alliance in 2024. 

The BJP hopes the Chautala family parties — the Indian National Lok Dal and the JJP — will split the community vote in a local election. It hopes to consolidate non-Jat, non-minority votes in its favour.

On the other hand, the Congress is hoping to create a Jat-Muslim-Dalit vote bloc, constituting around 50% of the population. Around 68% Dalits backed the INDIA bloc in the state in general elections.

While the PDP and the NC have presence in Kashmir valley (47 seats), the BJP and the INC in the Jammu region (37 seats). Post delimitation, the valley seats have increased to 47, while Jammu has 43 seats in a 90-member house. The Ladakh region is now a separate union territory.

In all the elections in this century, 2002, 2008 and 2014, the state has thrown a hung verdict. In 2002, the PDP and the INC formed a government in a post-poll arrangement. In 2008, the NC and the INC formed the government, while in 2014, the PDP and the BJP formed a coalition government.

There is a space for a new/third party in the Kashmir valley representing the aspirations of new J&K youth. Former CMs Mehbooba Mufti and Omar Abdullah lost the elections.

An independent candidate, in jail for advocating Kashmiri separatism, won the third seat in Kashmir valley. New parties like the J&K People Conference, J&K Apni Party and J&K Awami Ittehad Party will also be trying their luck in the valley.

The BJP hopes that the Kashmir valley seats are split between the NC, PDP and the new parties, while it sweeps the Jammu region seats. However, Jammu region as well has districts where Muslims are in majority, and this is where the Congress has been doing well.

If the INDIA bloc stays intact, then it hopes the NC would win the majority of the Kashmir valley region, while Congress the Jammu region and emerge victorious. If alliance fails to fructify, then a quadrangular contest is on the cards and a hung verdict cannot be ruled out again.

While terrorism has reduced substantially in the valley, there have been many instances recently in the Jammu region. To hold incident-free elections will be a challenge for the ECI and the security forces.

Inflation, price rise, agri distress, unemployment along with local factors like wrestlers' protest, abrogation of article 370 in J&K along with new incidents of terrorism, Jat anger in Haryana could be the deciding factors in these elections.