Trade Setup For Oct. 11: Nifty 50 Support At 24,900 Amid Indecisiveness Between Bulls And Bears

Indian markets traded sideways throughout Thursday to close flat with a positive bias. With no clear indication for the market trend, analysts expect 24,900 to act as support for Nifty 50 with resistance levels at 25,200.

The markets on the daily chart formed a small candle with non-directional activity on the intraday chart, indicating the indecisiveness between the bulls and bears. If the Nifty 50 index holds above the low of 24,900, it could see a rise to 25,150, but a close below the level could lead to a fresh breakdown, said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd, reiterated.

However, there is no clarity in the market trend due to changes in the market outlook that have created a challenging market environment, said Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst, Technical & Derivatives, Angel One Ltd.

"Going ahead, the volatility is likely to surge, with opportunities lying within the broader market amidst the commencement of the quarterly season," said Krishnan. He also said that since the current market texture is volatile, a stock-centric approach is a good option for traders.

Bank Nifty was buoyant despite volatility and saw a positive close on Thursday. The index is showing strength on the carts after it formed a big green candle, said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd.

Yedve also added that the Nifty Bank index is facing resistance at 51,700–51,800 levels. If the index can sustain above 51,800, then it could test levels of 52,500-52,800.

The GIFT Nifty, an early indicator of the Nifty 50 Index’s performance in India, was up 17 or 0.07% at 25,079.5 as of 06:37 a.m.

The Nifty October futures were up 0.17% to 25,118 at a premium of 120 points, with the open interest up by 1.2%.

The Nifty Bank October futures were up by 0.81% to 51,780 at a premium of 250 points, while its open interest was up by 3.45%.

The open interest distribution for the Nifty 50 Oct. 17 expiry series indicated most activity at 26,000 call strikes, with 25,000 put strikes having maximum open interest.

For the Bank Nifty options expiry on Oct. 16, the maximum call open interest was at 62,000 and the maximum put open interest was at 51,000.

Overseas investors, commonly known as Foreign Portfolio Investors, or FPIs, remained net sellers of Indian equities for nine consecutive sessions on Thursday, while domestic institutional investors bought stocks worth Rs 3,878.33 crore.

According to provisional data from the National Stock Exchange, FPIs offloaded stocks worth Rs 4,926.61 crore.

Benchmark equity indices of India closed with little gains on Thursday as the markets look forward to the earnings of the country's largest IT services firm, Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., to be released later in the day. Inflation data from the US aftermarket hours will also be a key monitorable.

The Nifty ended 0.07%, or 16.50 points up at 24,998.45 and Sensex advanced 0.18%, or 144.3 points, to close at 81,611.4.

Ahead of its September quarter results, TCS shares closed 0.6% lower at Rs 4,227.40 per share.

• TCS: The tech giants profit fell 1.1% at Rs 11,909 crore in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, missing estimates, even as its revenue rose during the period. The company's revenue rose 2.6% to Rs 64,259 crore, compared to the Bloomberg estimate of Rs 64,186 crore. Margins came in at 24.1%, lower than 24.7% recorded in the first quarter.

• IREDA: The company reported a net profit of Rs 388 crore during the three months ended September, an increase of 36% from the year-ago period, lower than the Rs 410 crore that analysts tracked by Bloomberg had estimated. The company's revenue rose 38% year-on-year to Rs 1,630 crore during the July-September period. Loan disbursements rose to Rs 9,787 crore, a 56% increase from Rs 6,273 crore recorded in September 2023. IREDA's outstanding loan book was Rs 64,500 crore, a 36% increase from Rs 47,514 crore in the previous year.

• Oberoi Realty: The company approved raising Rs 6,000 crores via shares or other instruments.

Most stocks in the Asia-Pacific region advanced in early trade on Friday, overlooking the higher-than-anticipated inflation print and signs of a slowing labour market in the US.

The Japanese benchmark Nikkei 225 was 115 points, or 0.29% higher at 39,414, while South Korea's Kospi was up 17 points or 0.66% at 2,616 as of 5:47 a.m.

The mixed trend in the latest data sets in the US brought back fears that the Federal Reserve will opt for a smaller rate cut next month or even maintain status quo.

The so-called core consumer price index—which excludes food and energy costs—increased 0.3% for a second month, more than forecasted in September. The core CPI rose 3.3% compared to the previous year versus the estimated 3.2%, stalling the Fed's inflation progress.

The weekly jobless claims in the US rose to 2.58 lakh—more than one-year high—against the estimated 2.30 lakh.

Following the mixed data point that added to the Fed's pressure, Wall Street ended lower as traders remained clueless about the upcoming rate decision. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.21% and 0.05%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.14%.

• US Dollar Index at 102.88

• US 10-year bond yield at 4.06%.

• Brent crude down 0.31% at $79.15 per barrel.

• Bitcoin was 0.76% up at $60,183

• Gold spot was up 0.12% at $2,632.96

The Indian rupee closed weaker on Thursday as the dollar index cooled, with investors awaiting key US CPI inflation data. 

The currency depreciated by 2 paise to close at 83.98 against the US dollar on Thursday, up from its Wednesday close of 83.96, according to Bloomberg. 

The dollar index was down 0.02% at 102.911. The minutes revealed that Fed Chair Jerome Powell faced pushback on the half-point interest rate cut, with some officials advocating for a smaller, quarter-point reduction.