Bharat Forge Share Price Hits Over Six–Month Low After Analysts Cut Target Price

Bharat Forge Ltd.'s share price declined to the lowest level in over six months as analysts cut target price and earnings per share estimates as they expect challenges from global demand and cyclical headwinds will impact growth in near term. This comes after the company's revenue fell in the second quarter of fiscal 2025.

Jefferies cut the target price to Rs 1,100 per share from Rs 1,200 apiece, which implied a 17.21% downside from Thursday's closing price. It has retained 'underperform' rating on the stock.

Bharat Forge's consolidated operating profit was 12% below Jefferies' estimates. Weaker than expected standalone performance and disappointing performance in subsidiaries weighed on the Ebitda, the brokerage said in a note.

It retained its cautious approach for Bharat Forge on concerns about cyclical headwinds on exports side and rich valuation. It cut the earnings per share estimates by 5–16% for financial years 2025-2027.

Decline in India commercial vehicles and exports on an annualised basis offset the impact of higher sales in domestic passenger vehicles and industrials, Jefferies said.

The brokerage now awaits defence orders for Bharat Forge, as the business has ramped up well because of exports. Jefferies estimates defence revenue of Rs 270 crore and Rs 330 crore, which implied 16% and 18% of consolidated revenues for financial years 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Citi Research cut the target price to Rs 920 from Rs 950 per share. The current target price implied 30.76% downside from the current price. The brokerage has a 'sell' rating on the stock.

Bharat Forge's adjusted net profit was 2% below Citi Research's estimates because of slightly lower income and higher tax. For financial years 2025-2027, Citi Research cut the standalone earning per share estimates by 3–5%. The brokerage has also done a minor downgrade for subsidiary revenue and margin estimates, resulting in a 4–7% cut in consolidated earning estimates for financial years 2025-2027.

• Revenue down 2.3% at Rs 3,689 crore versus Rs 3,774 crore.

• Ebitda up 4.2% at Rs 647 crore versus Rs 621 crore.

• Margin at 17.5% versus 16.5%.

• Net profit up 13.6% at Rs 243 crore versus Rs 214 crore.

Bharat Forge's share price declined 3.17% to Rs 1,286.60 apiece, the lowest level since May 8. It was trading 2.83% down at Rs 1,291.20 apiece as of 09:44 a.m., as compared to a 0.63% decline in the NSE Nifty 50.

The stock gained 20.98% in 12 months, and 4.7% on year-to-date basis. Total traded volume so far in the day stood at 2.0 times its 30-day average. The relative strength index was at 28.27, which implied the stock is oversold.

Out of 28 analysts tracking the company, 15 maintain a 'buy' rating, three recommend a 'hold' and 10 suggest 'sell', according to Bloomberg data. The average of 12-month analysts' consensus price target implies an upside of 11.2%.