COP28: Parties Agree To Transition From Fossil Fuels, India Unlikely To Succumb

Negotiators from close to 200 nations at the COP28 have for the first time agreed to "transition" from fossil fuels to limit the worst effect of global temperature by keeping it within 1.5 degrees by 2030.

“While we didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai… Now, all governments and businesses need to turn these pledges into real-economy outcomes without delay,” UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said.

The decision marks the beginning of the end of fossil fuels, he said.

The parties had come together in Dubai for the world’s first "global stocktake" to heighten climate action before the end of the decade.

The stocktake recognises that global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 43% by 2030, as compared with 2019 levels, to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

However, the parties are off track when it comes to meeting their Paris Agreement goals, it stated.

The stocktake also noted that renewable energy capacity needs to be tripled and energy efficiency needs to be doubled by 2030 to achieve the set goals for reducing global warming.

Efforts should be made to accelerate the phase-down of unabated coal power, the phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, and other measures that drive the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, with developed countries continuing to take the lead, it said.

In the short term, nations are encouraged to come forward with ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories, aligned with the 1.5°C limit in their next round of climate action plans (known as nationally determined contributions) by 2025.

According to Stiell, the next two years are going to be crucial when COP29 and COP30 will be held in Azerbaijan and Brazil, respectively.

At COP29, governments must establish a new climate finance goal, reflecting the scale and urgency of the climate challenge. And at COP30, they must come prepared with new nationally determined contributions that are economywide, cover all greenhouse gases and are fully aligned with the 1.5°C temperature limit, he said.

“India is the fastest-growing large economy in the post-Covid world. As a result, it’s experiencing strong growth in electricity demand. It’s inevitable that India will add more thermal coal power generation capacity to meet this demand," said Debashish Mishra, chief growth officer at Deloitte South Asia.

"India is unlikely to succumb to global pressure to hasten the energy transition and sacrifice economic prosperity for its citizens, given its historic cumulative and per capita emissions being the lowest compared to other G20 countries," Mishra said.

India's 2070 net-zero targets are based on specific models and calculations.

It was earlier thought that coal-based power could be managed and phased out by renewable power and storage, but storage prices have not dropped the way it was expected, Mishra said.

India's total cumulative emission is 3%, but for the U.S., Australia and Europe, it is over 65%.