Moody's Projects India’s FY25 GDP Growth At 6.6%, Below RBI’s Forecast

Moody's Ratings on Tuesday said the Indian economy is projected to expand 6.6% in the current fiscal year and said strong credit demand fuelled by robust economic growth will support the NBFC sector's profitability.

'We expect India's economy to expand 6.6% in the year ended March 2025 (FY25) and 6.2% the following year, and this will lead to robust loan growth at NBFCs, mitigating the impact of rising funding costs on their profitability,' Moody's Ratings said.

The Indian economy is estimated to have expanded 8% in the 2023-24 fiscal year.

In a commentary on the non-banking finance companies, Moody's said robust economic conditions will help them preserve their asset quality even as rise in interest rates increase the debt burdens of their customers.

'Funding costs for non-bank finance companies (NBFCs) in India are rising, but strong credit demand fuelled by country's robust economic growth will support the sector's profitability.

'Also, robust economic conditions will help them preserve their asset quality even as rises in interest rates increase the debt burdens of their customers,' Moody's said.

Aggregate year-on-year loan growth at NBFCs accelerated to 20.8% in September 2023 from 10.8% a year earlier, driven by demand for retail loans, including financing for housing and automobiles.

Moody's Ratings expects loans at NBFCs to grow about 15% in the next 12-18 months, driven by various types of lending, including infrastructure financing by large government-owned NBFCs and loans to small and medium-sized enterprises.

'Growth in unsecured retail loans will slow after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the risk weight of such credit assets for both banks and NBFCs by 25 percentage points in December 2023,' Moody's Ratings said.

NBFCs will continue to play an important role in meeting credit needs among individuals and businesses in India's vast economy.

The largest 20 NBFCs have strong market positions and long histories of providing specific types of loans, such as financing for housing or commercial vehicles.

Also, most of them are owned by the government or by large corporate groups, which would lend stability to their funding in times of stress, the agency said.

Moody's Ratings' FY25 GDP growth estimates are, however, lower than the projections made by the RBI and other agencies, but is at par with Deloitte's forecast.

The RBI has projected Indian economy to grow at 7% in current fiscal.

While the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Fitch Ratings have estimated growth at 7 per cent, S&P Global Ratings and Morgan Stanley projects growth rate of 6.8 per cent.

Deloitte India estimates India's GDP to grow at 6.6% in the current fiscal year helped by consumption expenditure, exports rebound and capital flows, but flagged concerns around inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.