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Interim budget: 10 numbers that will influence stock markets
17 Feb 2014, 09:54 AM IST 
- Fiscal deficit: India's high deficit has led to a threat of downgrade by ratings agencies, which the country cannot afford. The finance minister is expected to report a fiscal deficit of nearly 4.8 per cent (or even lower) of GDP for the current fiscal year. For the next fiscal year 2014-15, the government is likely to announce a deficit target of 4.2 per cent.
- Cut-back in planned or productive expenditure: Analysts will be closely tracking how the deficit target is achieved. Last fiscal, Mr Chidambaram had cut back government expenditure by over Rs. 1 lakh crore to control fiscal deficit.
- The subsidy bill - mainly for selling oil, fertiliser and food at cheaper rates - is likely to touch near Rs 3 trillion (1 trillion=1 lakh crore) in 2013-14, against a budgeted target of Rs 2.21 trillion. The government may defer oil, fertiliser and other subsidies worth nearly Rs 1 lakh crore to the next fiscal year to rein in fiscal deficit.
- For the next fiscal year 2014-15, the government is likely to announce a deficit target of 4.2 per cent.
- Gross borrowing, which is important from markets' point of view, is likely to be around Rs 6 lakh crore for 2014-15 assuming 12 per cent nominal GDP growth. This number will be closely tracked by bond, currency and equity markets.
- Total expenditure between April-December stood at Rs 11.64 lakh crore.
- Tax receipts: Net tax receipts were at Rs 5.18 lakh crore in the first nine months of the current fiscal year to March 2014.
- Excise duties were down 6.9 per cent at Rs 1.02 lakh crore during April-December from the year-earlier period.
- Customs tax receipts rose 4.3 per cent to Rs 1.24 lakh crore - much lower than the 13.6 per cent annual growth target.
- GDP estimate: Finance Minister P Chidambaram is likely to project near 6 per cent GDP growth for coming 2014-15 fiscal year. The economy is projected to grow by 4.9 per cent for the current fiscal year ending in March.
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