The presidential elections in the United States, arguably the most-watched electoral contest globally, will culminate on Nov. 5 when the ballots will close. Around 244 million Americans are eligible to cast their vote to elect the country's 47th president.
The primary contest is between Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris and her Republican counterpart Donald Trump, but other candidates in the fray include Green Party's Jill Stein and Libertarian Party's Chase Oliver.
The voting process kickstarted on Sept. 20 when most of the US provinces began early in-person voting. The only provinces that bar early voting are Mississippi, Alabama and New Hampshire.
A bulk of the American provinces also allow voters to register their mandate via absentee ballots or mails. However, most of the Republican-controlled states require the voters to submit a reason to vote by mail.
In the 2020 presidential election, which was held under the Covid-19 shadow, 42% of the voters registered their mandate through absentee ballots. Trump, who lost that election against then Democrat rival and the current outgoing President Joe Biden, had alleged that absentee voting was "fraudulent".
Overall, the voter turnout in the 2020 election stood at around 158 million— approximately two-thirds of the overall registered voters — and among them, 66.4 million voted through absentee ballots. The proportion of in-person voting is expected to increase this time, as unlike the last elections, there are no pandemic-related curbs.
Electoral College Explained
Once the voting concludes, the focus shifts towards the electoral college — a 538-member body that officially elects the US president.
The members of the electoral college are called "electors", and each state nominates a certain number of electors based on their strength in the House of Representatives and the Senate — the two wings of the US Congress.
The candidates running for president have their own group of electors in all the provinces. So, when voters register their vote for a presidential candidate, they are actually voting for the candidate's electors in that state.
All but two American provinces have a "winner-take-all" system that awards all electors to the presidential candidate who wins the state's popular vote. For example, Texas has 40 electors, and the candidate who wins the popular vote — more than 50% of the votes cast — will bag all 40 electoral college votes from the state.
The only exception are the provinces of Maine and Nebraska, where electors are sent to the electoral college on the basis of "proportional representation".
Notably, the highest number of electors (54) are sent to the electoral college by California, and the lowest number of electors (three) are nominated by smaller provinces like Alaska, North Dakota and Vermont.
To win the election, a presidential candidate needs the support of at least 270 out of the 538 electors.
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Can Electoral College 'Trump' Popular Vote?
Since most states follow the winner-take-all system to award electors, there is a possibility that a presidential candidate ends up bagging more electors despite trailing in the popular vote count.
This was most recently witnessed in 2016, when Trump won the presidential election with 306 electoral college votes, despite trailing to Democratic Party's Hillary Clinton by roughly 3 million in popular voting.
Earlier, in 2000, George W Bush had won the presidential polls with 271 electoral college votes, even as he trailed rival AI Gore by over a half-a-million popular votes.
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Swing States Key To Victory
Although all 50 provinces of the US vote to elect the president, the contest politically boils down to the swing states — those with a history of flipping between Republicans and Democrats.
Most of the other provinces have a history of being electorally aligned with one of the two mainstream parties.
The following are the swing states in the upcoming presidential polls:
Pennsylvania (19 electoral college votes): Once a Democrat stronghold, Pennsylvania turned into a swing state in 2016 when Trump eroded the blue bastion by a thin margin of 0.7% votes. However, Biden reclaimed the state in 2020.
Georgia (16 electoral college votes): A Republican stronghold since 1992, the province was won by the Democrats in 2020 with a narrow margin. Trump, who alleged foul play, was later charged with attempting to interfere in the state's election process by allegedly pressurising the polling officials to find "evidence" to overturn Biden's lead.
North Carolina (16 electoral college votes): Although Democrats last won the state in 2008, analysts count it as a swing state due to the change in demography. The 2020 census showed the population growing over 10 million and becoming more diverse, which in turn benefits the Democrats.
Michigan (15 electoral college votes): Long seen as a Democratic bastion, Trump won the state in 2016 by a narrow margin. The outcome was reversed four years later, when Biden reclaimed the state. This time, Arab-Americans, who comprise more than 200,000 of Michigan voters, have marked their angst against the Democrats for their handling of the Israel–Hamas war. A top Muslim cleric of Michigan, along with a mayor from the community, have extended support to Trump.
Arizona (11 electoral college votes): The state, which shares a border with Mexico, was won by Biden with a slim margin of about 10,000 votes in 2020. Trump's campaign is hopeful of reversing the outcome this time with the alleged discontentment among locals over the Democrat's immigration policy.
Wisconsin (10 electoral college votes): The state, known for its shifting electoral preferences, elected Trump by a narrow 21,000-vote margin in 2016. However, Biden turned the tide in 2020 with a 23,000-vote margin win.
Nevada (six votes): Although the province has never given a majority vote to any Republican candidate since 2004, analysts see it as a swing state as Trump was able to cut down the losing margin to around 30,000 votes in 2020. His prospects appear stronger this time, as he has made headways with a section of the province's Hispanic voters.
Dates To Mark Out
Nov. 5, 2024: This is the date when regular voting — other than absentee ballot and early in-person voting — will take place. This day, also known as the Election Day, will draw the curtains on the polling process. The ballots generally close between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. Eastern Time, and news channels release the first set of credible projections by around 11 p.m.
Nov. 25, 2024: This is the final day marked by 17 states, along with the District of Columbia, to allow the arrival and counting of postal ballot votes. However, these ballots must have the postmark of Election Day (Nov. 5).
Dec. 11, 2024: Electors — the members nominated to the Electoral College based on the popular vote — will officially vote to elect the president and vice president. The voting will be in accordance with their respective party lines. This means that the electors who had pledged support to Trump or Harris will be required to accordingly vote for them.
Dec. 17, 2024: All the 538 electoral college votes must arrive in Washington by this date.
Jan. 6, 2025: The electoral college votes will be formally counted before the US Congress. Although the number of votes to be won by the candidates would already be known by then, this step is a key formality in the process of electing the president.
Jan. 20, 2025: The change of guards will be completed. On this date, the four-year tenure of the elected president and vice-president will officially begin.
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