T20 World Cup 2024: Match 22 of the ICC Men's T20 World Cup will see Pakistan take on Canada in what will be a do-or-die clash for the 'Men in Green'. For Canada, the match is equally important as a win would put them in contention for a spot in the Super 8s.
So the result of the match is not a foregone conclusion as far as Pakistan is concerned, who would be the second team to get eliminated (after Oman) from the group stages of the T20 World Cup if they end up losing on Tuesday.
Earlier, Pakistan suffered their second defeat of the T20 World Cup in as many matches leaving them on the brink of elimination. A shocking defeat against the United States was followed by a disappointing loss against India in match 19 of the 2024 T20 World Cup which took place in New York.
After these two defeats, Pakistan find themselves at the fourth position in the Group A points table, one place above Ireland who have lost both their matches.
With just two matches to go for all the teams in Group A, the qualification scenario for the critical Super 8 stage now hangs in a balance. Pakistan will face off against Canada on Tuesday, June 11 before playing their last game of the group stage against Ireland on Sunday, June 16.
Before we look at the scenarios, let's quickly take a look at what the Group A points table looks like, and also the list of remaining matches in Group A.
T20 World Cup 2024: Group A Points Table
| Group A | Mat | Won | Lost | Points | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1.455 |
| United States | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.626 |
| Canada | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -0.274 |
| Pakistan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -0.15 |
| Ireland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1.712 |
T20 World Cup 2024: Group A Remaining Matches
Pakistan vs Canada - Tuesday, June 11
United States vs India - Wednesday, June 12
United States vs Ireland - Friday, June 14
India vs Canada - Saturday, June 15
Pakistan vs Ireland - Sunday, June 16
Can Pakistan Qualify for Super 8?
For Pakistan to qualify for the Super 8 stage of the T20 World Cup they have to first win both their remaining matches against Canada and Ireland with a good margin and expect either India or United States to lose their remaining matches.
This will mean that both Pakistan and India/USA will end the group stage with four points each. The net run rate could still come into play, so Pakistan have to ensure they record huge victories in their match against Canada and Ireland and expect the results of other matches to go their way.
The qualification for the Super 8 stage can also turn into a three-horse race if Canada plays a spoilsport and wins against India.
So can Pakistan book a place in the Super Eights? Here are the multiple permutations and combinations analysed that can guarantee them a place in the advanced stages of the 2024 T20 World Cup.
How can Pakistan qualify for Super 8?
Beat both Canada and Ireland by good margin.
Winner of India vs USA to win their last game.
Loser of India vs USA to lose their last game.
Canada should lose both their games.
Pakistan Super 8 Qualification Sceanrios: Permutations and Combinations
Scenario 1
Pakistan beats Canada, India beats United States, Ireland beats United States, India beats Canada, Pakistan beats Ireland
In this scenario, India will top group A with 8 points leaving either Pakistan or United States to grab the second spot. Pakistan will qualify if its net run rate is superior to that of the United States.
Scenario 2
Pakistan beats Canada, United States beats India, United States beats Ireland, India beats Canada, Pakistan beats Ireland
In this scenario, the United States will top group A with 8 points leaving either Pakistan or India to grab the second spot. Pakistan can clinch the Super 8 qualification if its net run rate is better than that of India, though this is unlikely to happen due to India's current superior net run rate of 1.455 as compared to Pakistan's -0.150.
Scenario 3
Pakistan beats Canada, India beats United States, Ireland beats United States, Canada beats India, Pakistan beats Ireland
In this scenario, India will top group A with six points leaving United States, Pakistan, and Canada on four points each. Pakistan will qualify if its net run rate is superior than that of the United States and Canada.
Scenario 4
Pakistan beats Canada, United States beats India, Canada beats India, Pakistan beats Ireland
In this scenario, United States will top group A leaving India, Pakistan, and Canada on four points each. Pakistan will qualify if its net run rate is superior to that of India and Canada.
If Pakistan ends up losing any one of their remaining matches, then they will be knocked out of the tournament.
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