Trump Victory May Push Rates Higher And Weaken USD; Rate-Cut Cycle May Pause, Says ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities Report

The US Presidential election will likely bring the prevailing policy rate environment to a fork in the road. While the path offered by Kamala Harris-led Democratic party is linear and projects continuity, the other path proposed by opposing faction – Donald Trump-led Republican party – presents itself as a sharp departure.

The Republican method could set in motion higher tariffs and tax cuts – usher in fiscal deficit pressure and become a vehicle for inflationary tendencies. As a domino effect, the USD could weaken – akin to Trump’s previous Presidency, when the Dollar index fell and fiscal deficit rose.

In the same vein, camp Trump’s protectionist policies (tariffs, immigration etc.) could be a curve ball for global trade – already reeling under the Red Sea crisis and container shortages.

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