Telecom Q3 Results Preview - Mobile Revenue Growth Sustains At ~10% Despite No Tariff Hike: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities Report

Our Q3 FY24 estimates suggest a steady quarter for Bharti Airtel Ltd. India, aided by average revenue per user expansion of 1% QoQ to Rs 205, and continued strong performance of the non-mobile segment. Airtel Africa’s performance may be hindered by African currency devaluation, but the underlying constant currency growth is likely to be healthy.

Reliance Jio’s subs growth is expected to be elevated with a likely 10 million net add; however, ARPU growth may be restricted by the adoption of unlimited data by 5G users.

Bharti India’s Ebitda margin expansion shall be capped by 5G-related costs, while Reliance Jio’s margin may be flattish despite 5G cost not being booked in profit and loss.

Vodafone Idea’s performance will likely be muted. Tata Communications Ltd.’s underlying data performance may be muted with 1.5% QoQ organic growth, while reported growth is likely to have revenue from Kaleyra merger (estimated Rs 6.4 billion). Data Ebitda margin to dip 400 basis points QoQ on losses from Kaleyra.

Indus Towers Ltd.’s tenancy adds to be strong (+5,000) led by Bharti Airtel’s rural 4G rollout; we do not project any provisioning related to Vodafone idea’s receivables, as Vodafone Idea continues to pay on time for newly billed invoices.

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