TCI Express Q4 Results Review - Subdued Performance; Expects 10-12% Revenue Growth In FY25: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities Report

TCI Express Ltd.’s Q4 FY24 Ebitda undershot our estimates by 12.1%, mainly on account of underutilised capacity due to volume decline. Key points:

1. Volume declined 1.9% YoY on subdued macro environment,

2. Ebitda margin declined to 14.1% (14.6% Q3 FY24), lowest since Q2 FY21,

3. 25 new branches were added in FY24 (10 branches in Q4 FY24),

4. new services contributed ~17.5-18% of revenue,

5. TCI Express incurred capex of Rs 460 million in FY24,

6. Board has recommended a final dividend of Rs 2/share, and

7. management expects 10-12% revenue growth with 50-100 basis points improvement in the margin in FY25.

TCI Express is our top pick in the logistics space and we maintain Buy on the stock with target price of Rs 1,495 at an unchanged 34 times FY26E earnings per share.

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