Stars Aligning For A Bull Market – Stock Picking To Get Challenging As All Boats May Rise: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities Report

We expect favorable cyclical factors to accelerate in CY24 driven by capex-cycle firing on all cylinders (reflected in Q2 FY24 GDP print), thereby triggering the corporate re-leveraging cycle.

Listed corporate profit is expected to approach ~5% profit after tax of GDP with return on equity moving into value-creating zone of more than 15%. In CY24, uncertainties related to-

1. general election outcome and

2. further interest rate hikes would largely be over with no major shocks likely as per the trends so far.

Ironically, foreign portfolio investment holdings of Indian stocks are at a decadal low but showing signs of a reversal while domestic institutional investor inflows continue.

As we enter a classic bull market, we emphasise risk management and are guided by the principle – a rising tide lifts all boats.

As the undiversifiable market risk lifts all boats during the approaching bull market, the real skill would be to focus analytical efforts towards finding ‘what not to buy’.

Nifty50 target for CY24-end stands at 23,200; our top picks

Large caps – L&T, Bharti Airtel, Coal India, ONGC, M&M, Indigo, HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank, SBI

Midand small caps - HPCL, CIE Automotive, InfoEdge, PVR Inox, Greenpanel, Astra Microwave, Jubilant Foodworks, Jyothy Labs.

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