SBI, Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Oil India, Gujarat Gas, Aarti Industries Q2 Results Review: HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities Institutional Equities

State Bank of India - Strong quarter; franchise on a strong footing

SBI’s earnings beat our estimates on the back of higher treasury/mark-to-market gains backed by healthy loan growth, largely stable margins and in-line asset quality. Loan growth (+15% YoY) was strong across segments even as the Xpress credit portfolio continued to decelerate.

Deposit growth (+9% YoY, +4.4% QoQ) was marginally soft as the current account savings account ratio dropped further to 38.4% (-64 bps QoQ), given that strong CA traction was offset by sluggish growth in SA balances.

Asset quality improved as Q1 seasonality moderated, reflecting in lower slippages and credit costs. We believe SBI is well-equipped to sustain growth, given its surplus liquidity and a comfortable LDR (75%), while managing margins ahead of a potential rate-cut cycle (SBI increased its MCLR by 30 bps in H1 FY25).

We reiterate SBI as our top pick and maintain Buy with a revised SOTP-based target price of Rs 1,050 (core bank at 1.5 times Sep-26 adjusted book value per share).

Tata Motors - Multiple headwinds ahead

Jaguar LandRover’s Q2 Ebitda margin declined 410bps QoQ to 11.7% due to lower volumes and higher VME. Overall a weak CV impacted revenues for the India CV business; however, margin improved 50 bps YoY led by savings in commodity costs.

Despite lower volumes, India PV business profitability improved sequentially, with Ebitda margin at 6.2% (+40 bps QoQ), aided by a better mix. India EV margins (ex PDE) improved from 0.1% in Q1 to 1.7% in Q2 due to battery price reductions and profits on new product launches.

JLR FY25 Ebit margin guidance maintained at 8.5%. While Q2 CV demand failed to pick up in line with expectations, health monsoon, pick-up in government capex and continued focus on infra are expected to drive CV demand in H2 FY25. PV growth is expected on the back of new model launches and comprehensive marketing strategy; while keeping a check on inventory.

We believe there are multiple headwinds ahead: slowdown in global volumes, domestic PV industry growth normalizing post a high base of two years and slowdown in domestic EVs post subsidy expiration. We revise the SoTP target price to Rs 855/share from Rs 955 earlier. Revise rating to Reduce.

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