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Dolat Capital Report
Reliance Industries Ltd.'s Q4 FY24 headline numbers came slightly below our estimates with revenue/Ebitda/profit after tax growth of +5%/+5%/+10% QoQ. Oil-to-chemical and Jio led the show, but there was a weak performance by retail.
Sharp reduction in capex (-48% YoY/-13% QoQ) post 5G rollout and slowdown in retail store addition. Going forward, we expect moderation in capex, which will improve free cash flow and reduce the net debt.
We forecast Ebitda/PAT compound annual growth rate of 14%/22% for FY24-FY26E with Jio contributing 48% share on the back of a tariff hike and retail contributing 21% on operating leverage and improved throughput.
We tweak our FY25E/FY26E EPS estimates by +3%/+2% to factor in-
recovery in petrochemical margins; and
higher operating efficiency at O2C unit.
Maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating with an upward revision in SoTP based target price at Rs 3,260 (versus Rs 3,010 earlier) mainly due to expansion in telecom valuation multiple and decline in net debt on moderation of capex.
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Also Read: Reliance Industries Q4 Results Review - Strong Growth In Consumer Businesses: HDFC Securities
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