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Dolat Capital Report
Overall the policy announcements are on expected lines. Concerns around food inflation are reiterated. The recent rise in industrial metal prices also earns close attention as it may get passed to the consumers. Buoyancy around economic growth (Real GDP growth of 8.2% versus 7.6% estimate by NSO in FY24) gives a window of opportunity to the MPC to evaluate developments around geopolitics, budget 2024 and monsoon, before the committee gets into the easing cycle.
Probable time for the first-rate cut in Oct-24 policy meeting. Risks to rate cut expectation are factors like rise in commodity, food prices and adoption of populist measures which could be inflationary in nature.
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