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IDBI Capital Report
PSP Projects Ltd.'s Q3 FY24 profit after tax came lower than our estimate and due to lower Ebitda margin at ~10% vs 12% YoY and QoQ. Margin was lower from execution of order in Uttar Pradesh, which PSP expects to get concluded in Q4 FY24, as only Rs 0.6 billion is pending revenue booking.
Order win has been consistent with the company and including level-one orders, it is close to achieving its FY24E inflow guidance of Rs 30 billion. 9M FY24 order book at Rs 44 billion, continue to provide revenue visibility at 1.7 times FY24E revenue.
Post the result we have lowered our margin expectation from 12.6% for FY25E to 11.5% and thus target price is revised lowered to Rs 860 (earlier Rs 907).
We continue to value PSP Projects at 12 times price-to-earnings ratio and maintain 'Buy' rating. After weak FY23, execution (revenue) has picked up and we expect revenue increase of 36%/18%/20% for FY24E/25E/26E.
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