Pharma Sector Check - Can Indian Generic Players Mitigate The Revlimid Cliff? Systematix

Systematix Research Report

gRevlimid launch has helped Indian players ramp up their North America sales meaningfully. For companies under our coverage (Cipla Ltd., Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd., Lupin Ltd., Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., and Zydus Lifesciences Ltd., we estimate the cumulative contribution from gRevlimid at $800-$900 million.

In addition to gRevlimid, these companies aslo generate signficant sales from other high-value products, which are essentially complex generics. We estimate these high value products including gRevlimid and complex generics contribute close to $1.7 billion to the U.S. sales for these companies.

The contribution of these products to the total profit is disproportionately high. Our attempt in this report is to estimate if the contribution of these high-value assets would remain stable, expand or erode in FY27 (once the Revlimid settlement exclusivity expires).

Our analysis suggests that in an optimistic scenario, sales may stay flat, but in a more likey scenario, the same could erode.

The pressure from erosion could vary across companies, but on a consolidated basis, U.S. sales could face pressure on growth.

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