Omicron Poses Downside Risk To GDP Growth Of 9.2% Projected In FY22 First Advance Estimates: ICRA

India GDP - Omicron Poses Downside Risk To GDP Growth Of 9.2% Projected In FY22 First Advance Estimates: ICRA

A worker wearing a protective mask operates a tape cutting machine while producing adhesive sealing tapes  inside a factory in Sonipat district, Haryana, India. (Photographer: Prashanth Vishwanathan/Bloomberg News)

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ICRA Research Report

The National Statistical Office has pegged the YoY expansion in gross domestic product and gross value added (at constant 2011-12 prices) at 9.2% and 8.6%, respectively, in the First Advance Estimates for FY22 (our expectation: up 9.0% and up 8.8%, respectively), indicating an implicit GDP growth of 5.6% for H2 FY22.

In our view, after a 6.0-6.5% rise in Q3 FY22, the GDP expansion is set to slip below 5.0% in the ongoing quarter. Amid the ongoing uncertainty, we currently peg the impact of Omicron on GDP growth in Q4 FY22 at around 40 basis points, posing a mild downside to our FY22 GDP growth forecast of 9.0%.

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ICRA GDP FY2022 FAE.pdf
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