Oil, Gas Sector Check - Risk-Reward Favorable For Downstream Sector: Anand Rathi

Anand Rathi Report

We retain our Buy ratings for Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd./Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd./Indian Oil Ltd. with a higher 12-month target price of Rs 587/443/149 (Rs 485/287/128 earlier), valuing them on a sum-of-parts basis (core business at five times FY25e enterprise value/Ebitda, six times earlier for HPCL, unchanged for BPCL/Indian Oil) and add the value of investments at a 20% discount to their market prices.

Our pecking order: BPCL more than Indian Oil more than HPCL.

Risks:

Lower gross refining market environment, change in crude prices, inventory losses, adverse government policy: subsidy-sharing, weak marketing margins environment.

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