Oil & Gas Q1 Results Preview - Higher Gas Demand To Benefit GAIL, Petronet LNG; CGDs Margin To Dip: Systematix

Systematix Research Report

Our gas coverage universe’s Ebitda is expected to grow at a healthy pace of 27% YoY (+6.6% QoQ) to Rs 70 billion while margins are forecasted to rise by 164 basis points YoY (31 bps QoQ) to 12%.

Strong growth is expected to higher gas consumption growth despite higher gas prices. As per PPAC, gas consumption volume has been averaged at 185 million metric standard cubic metre per day during Apr-May 2025 versus 175/181 mmscmd YoY/QoQ.

Though majority of growth is expected to be delivered by GAIL India Ltd. and Petronet LNG Ltd. while city gas distributions are expected to report a decline in Ebitda owing to higher gas cost due to lower APM allocation and flattish to lower realisation.

Reliance Industries Ltd. is also expected to report a sharp decline at Ebitda sequentially owing to lower oil-to-chemical and retail business profits.

GAIL and Petronet LNG, however, expected to benefit from higher gas volume and better marketing margins. We maintain our Neutral stance on the sector and keep a Hold rating on most of the coverage universe except a Sell on Gujarat Gas.

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