Oil And Gas Q1 Results Preview – Weak Start To FY25: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities Report

Q1 FY25 results for oil and gas companies under our coverage (excluding Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd., Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd. shown separately) are likely to show muted trend both YoY and QoQ.

We expect Ebitda/profit after tax to decline 3/9% YoY and 4/12% QoQ, specifically due to a sharp decline in YoY performance by OMCs (HPCL), Indraprastha Gas Ltd., Mahanagar Gas Ltd. and Gujarat State Petronet Ltd.

Upstream players (ONGC plus Oil India India) are likely to report 4/5% YoY decline and city gas distributions may report 3/5% YoY decline in Ebitda/PAT, respectively.

However, utilities (GAIL India Ltd./Petronet LNG/Gujarat State Petronet) are the only bright spot, likely rise 51/58% YoY in Ebitda/PAT. Reliance Industries Ltd. is likely to show mixed performance during Q1, with Ebitda/PAT up 5/3% YoY, but indicating a dip of 6/13% QoQ. Gulf Oil continues with its last couple of quarters’ strong YoY performance trend with Ebitda/PAT likely to grow 29/28% YoY, respectively.

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