ITC Q4 Results Review - Operating Performance Inline With Our Estimate: Yes Securities

Yes Securities Report

ITC Ltd.'s Q4 FY24 operating performance was in-line with our estimates. Cigarette volumes have seen sequential uptick with calculated volume growth looking slightly better than our estimate.

FMCG-others saw a resilient performance amidst subdued demand in Q4 FY24 with 7.2% growth and Ebitda margin of 11.6%. Trade restrictions on agri commodities continue to have an impact on agri business while value-added agri products and leaf tobacco grew at a healthy pace.

Progressive scale-up of export shipments of Nicotine and Nicotine derivative products post trials should provide some aid for the segment.

Paperboards, paper and packaging segment also continued to remain impacted by low priced Chinese supplies in global markets, muted domestic demand, surge in wood cost and high base effect.

There is no major change in our earnings. Based on target multiple of ~25 times (three year/five year average forward multiple ~21 times/20 times) on March 26E earnings per share, we arrive at an unchanged target price of Rs 500. Maintain Add.

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