India Strategy, Economy - Is The GDP Blitzkrieg A Statistical Exaggeration? Systematix Analysis

Systematix Research Report

Behind the robust headline real gross domestic product growth of 7.6% in Q2 FY24 and 7.7% in H1 FY24, padded up by overstated gross value added is a flattening trend in the core real GDP growth (ex-discrepancies), which is worrisome; H1 FY23 core GDP growth stood at 2.3% YoY and 3.5% four-year compound annual growth rate.

With only 29% of H1 real GDP growth accounted for by identified spending components, the disproportionate role discrepancies play is systemic, posing credibility challenges.

Core GDP depictsthe actual situation of the household livelihood, employment and productivity more aptly. Breaking the structural underpinnings of rising ruralisation and continued lack of private capex requires sustained taming of inflation along with fiscal support and structural reforms.

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