India State Elections - Modi Gains Momentum For 2024: Dolat Capital

Dolat Capital Report

The results to the state elections came out as a surprise on three counts – one the strength of the BJP victory in what were perceived as close fights in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Second contrary to expectations, BJP winning the state of Chhattisgarh versus pollsters prediction of a Congress victory.

And very important, these wins came through without significant local faces being projected – so the Modi factor which was being said to have been diluted came otherwise – stronger and a the real swing factor.

Notably the states of MP / Rajasthan / Chhattisgarh have combined 66 (12%) Lok Sabha seats – the BJP led NDA had swept through the 2019 general elections winning 64 even after losing after the state elections in late 2018.

What are the implications for this latest round?

• Modi continues to maintain a substantial lead versus challengers and the odds for a third term only get further enhanced.

• Arithmetic speculation on whether it will yet again a single party majority for the BJP will rest for the moment.

• Opposition parties led by the Congress will have to revisit the playbook – but how quickly they will be able to overcome their contradictions remains a moot point.

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