India Economy Update - Cyclical Moderation Continues In September: Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang Report

Early data for September 2024 suggests that 65.7% indicators were in the positive territory on YoY basis versus 70.0% in Aug-24. Final data indicates that 61.2% indicators were in the positive territory in Aug-24 on YoY basis.

On MoM basis, 51.4% indicators were in the positive territory in Sep-24 versus 70.0% in Aug-24. Final data indicates that 57.1% indicators were in the positive territory in Aug-24 on MoM basis. Our proprietary output index continues to show signs of cyclical moderation.

In signs of rural recovery, rural unemployment moderated to 7.0% in Sep-24 from 8.4% in Aug-24. Tractor sales grew by 3.7% YoY in Sep-24 and were up by 100.5% MoM.

Among the auto segments, two-wheeler sales performed the best and were up 15.8% YoY in Sep-24 (up 18.4% MoM).

Manufacturing and Services PMI moderated in Sep-24. Exports grew by a muted 0.5% YoY in Sep-24 (versus 9.3% decline in Aug-24).

The Naukri Jobspeak index was down 3.8% YoY in Sep-24. Banks’ non-food credit growth (excluding HDFC) moderated and stood at 14.1% YoY in Sep-24 versus 14.9% in Aug-24. The credit-to-deposit ratio also moderated and stood at 77.0% in Sep-24 versus 77.5% in Aug-24.

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