India Economy, Strategy I Household Situations Tracker - Revival Still Afar: Systematix

Systematix Research Report

Q1 FY25 results of consumer companies, both staples and discretionary experienced subdued demand even as they hope for better future on the back of rural revival and festive demand.

We present a collective analysis of the recently released survey data of urban workers and households (RBI Consumer Confidence,) along with the contextualization of industry-level data, retail lending of banks, ITR filing, rural wages, government revenue spending, corporate spending on employee compensation and agriculture sector outlook.

The emerging picture indicates that the household situation has weakened further in recent months with real income continuing to decline thereby extending the structural drag explained in our earlier research on annual surveys of PLFS, unregistered enterprises (ASUSE), RBI’s KLEMS data and household consumer expenditure survey.

While the prospect of a better monsoon is a silver lining, we anticipate higher government spending towards uplifting rural income, specially at the state level, to be the key driving factor out of the structural drag. For the moment, falling real HH income, capturing 78% of GDP implies a gradual recovery at best; it will continue to be a drag on the real GDP growth and the banking sector.

Click on the attachment to read the full report: 

DISCLAIMER

This report is authored by an external party. NDTV Profit does not vouch for the accuracy of its contents nor is responsible for them in any way. The contents of this section do not constitute investment advice. For that you must always consult an expert based on your individual needs. The views expressed in the report are that of the author entity and do not represent the views of NDTV Profit.

Users have no license to copy, modify, or distribute the content without permission of the Original Owner.