India Banking Q1 Results Preview - Seasonal Softness To Reflect In The Overall Performance: DRChoksey

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DRChoksey Research Report

Q1 FY25E is expected to see moderation in the business momentum compared to Q4 FY24 considering the seasonal weakness and some slowdown in the economic activities due to elections and extreme heat wave.

In FY25E, we anticipate the industry will experience a moderation in credit growth compared to FY24, with an expected range of 14.0–15.0%. The impact of the HDFC merger is expected to dissipate by Q2 FY25E.

We believe that net interest margins will exhibit mixed performance in H1 FY25E but will stabilize in the latter half, assuming interest rates remain unchanged.

We prefer IndusInda Bank Ltd. (1.4 times FY26E price/adjusted book value), ICICI Bank Ltd. (2.7 times FY26E P/ABV) and State Bank of India (1.6 times FY26E P/ABV) as our top picks as we believe that they are well positioned to gain from the industry opportunities.

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DRChoksey - Banking Sector Earnings Preview_Q1FY25E.pdf

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