HUL Q3 Results Review - Near Term Challenges Persists: Prabhudas Lilladher

Q3 FY24 volumes up 2%, expect slow and modest recovery amid competition

Hindustan Unilever Ltd. (Source: Company website)

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Prabhudas Lilladher Report

We cut Hindustan Unilever Ltd.'s FY25/26 earnings per share by 4.2%/4.5% factoring in-

  1. sustained pressure on volumes,

  2. lower pricing element to support growth and ward off competition from local/regional players and

  3. higher investments in advertising and promotion and capability building for long term growth.

Healthcare and beauty and personal care (75% of sales) continue to grow volumes in mid-single digits while food and refreshment is under pressure due to volatile commodity prices and consumer downgrading.

Rural growth is showing signs of pickup; however, a lot depends upon outlook for new crop. While long term growth story led by lower penetration and superior value proposition remains intact, near term growth challenges are likely to persist.

We factor in gross margin/Ebitdam expansion of 90/30 basis points over FY24-26 as HUL invests gains from better mix and commodity pricing in advertising, royalty and innovations.

We estimate CAGR of 9.2% in sales and 8.8% in PAT over FY24-26 and assign a discounted cash flow based target price of Rs 2724 (Rs 2786 earlier).

We expect slow and modest recovery resulting in tepid growth in near term which will provide back ended returns. Retain 'Hold'.

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Prabhudas Lilldher HUL Q3FY24 Results Review.pdf
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Also Read: HUL Q3 Results Review - Marginal Miss On Estimates: Systematix

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