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Dolat Capital Report
GAIL India Ltd.’s Q2 FY25 Ebitda/profit after tax came +3%/+17% above our estimates mainly driven by-
strong performances in petrochemical and OLHC/LPG and
lower tax rate of 23%, jump in other income by 27% YoY and sequential sharp decline in depreciation.
The company has maintained its transmission volume guidance of 132/142/152 million metric standard cubic metre per day for FY25E/FY26E/FY27E. Additionally, gas trading Ebitda guidance has set at Rs 45 billion for FY25, likely to be revised upward in Q3, as the GAIL has already achieved ~75% of Ebitda in H1 FY25.
We tweak our FY25E/FY26E Ebitda estimates by -9%/-7% on account of-
moderated margins assumptions for petrochemical & OLHC; and
slight increase in gas cost for transmission with a cut in trading volume assumptions.
We maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating with revised SoTP-based target price of Rs 235 (earlier Rs 252).
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