Film Exhibition Q1 Results Preview - Global, Domestic Events Keep Multiplexes Muted: Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang Report

After Q2 FY24 turned out to be the best quarter in the Indian multiplex history, Q3 FY24 saw a sharp QoQ dip (despite a strong December 2023) and the trend continued in Q4 FY24 on a QoQ basis.

We believe that Q1 FY25 will be the third consecutive quarter of disappointment as major events like the IPL, T20i World Cup, general elections in India and heat waves across the country impacted the flow of Hindi releases and Hollywood content remained limited (due to the actors’ and writers’ strike in H2 CY23).

Advertisement revenue will also be cannibalized by the IPL and T20i World Cup.

We were expecting a weak Q1 FY25 and believe that Q1 FY25 occupancy likely stood at ~21% versus 32.3% in Q2 FY24, 25.2% in Q3 FY24 and ~22.6% in Q4 FY24. The biggest saving grace of the quarter was ‘Kalki 2898 AD’, which was released in the last weekend and garnered ~Rs 3 billion+ India GBOC in the last three days of the quarter.

Other key movies included ‘Aavesham’ (~Rs 1 billion), ‘Munjya’ (~Rs 1 billion), ‘Aranmanai 4’ (~Rs 850 million), ‘BMCM’ (~Rs 730 million), ‘Maidaan’ (~Rs 610 million), ‘Garudan’ (~Rs 620 million), and ‘Chandu Champion’ (~Rs 600 million).

This is the first quarter in Indian cinema history when a regional movie will be the highest grosser in each of the three months. With April 2024 and May-24 GBOC at Rs 4.6 billion and Rs 7.1 billion, respectively being very low, June-24 will be the best month this quarter. PVR-INOX has a low share in the regional box office, which has had the highest share of the total GBOC in Q1 FY25.

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