Lok Sabha Exit Polls Predict Modi 3.0: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Report

According to the exit polls announced later in the day (on June 01, 2024), Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to comfortably secure a third consecutive term with a full majority. The exit polls underscore a massive pro-incumbency wave in favor of PM Narendra Modi, who is once again defying the conventional wisdom of anti-incumbency.

On the contrary, he is anticipated to improve his tally, once again. This result slightly exceeds the projections of opinion polls conducted prior to the elections and surpasses the 2019 mandate of 353 seats.

The exit polls accord an average of ~370 seats to the NDA and ~140 seats to the INDIA alliance, with the remaining seats going to other parties outside of these two pre-poll alliances.

The BJP is predicted to win an average of 325 plus seats (versus 303 seats in 2019), while the Congress is expected to improve its tally to ~65 seats (from 52 seats in 2019).

The BJP is anticipated to inch closer to ~40% vote share on its own (versus 37.3% in 2019), and the NDA is expected to touch 47% vote share (versus 45% in 2019).

The Congress is also likely to improve its vote share to ~21% in 2024 from 19% in 2019, but it will still be close to half of the BJP’s projected vote share.

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