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HDFC Securities Institutional Equities
Avenue Supermarts Ltd.'s revenue grew 18.4% to Rs 137.12 billion in Q1. Sales density back to pre-pandemic times (up 4% YoY; ~Rs 35.62k/sq ft in Q1 FY25).
As expected, share from general merchandise and apparel continues to normalise upwards which is reflected in improving gross margins (up 34 bps to 14.9%; in-line).
The cost of retailing has inched up though as DMart continues investing in improving service levels and building future capabilities. Ebitdam as a consequence shed gross margin gains and remained largely stable at 8.9% (our estimate: 9%).
Store expansion remains measured (six stores added). DMart has fully utilised the QIP money (Rs 40.78 billion). With the current resources available (capital work in progress + Cash and Eq + FY25/26 CFO), it can add ~50-60 stores annually for FY25/26 (we build in 45-50 stores annually).
We largely maintain our FY25/26 EPS estimates. Reduce rating stands as risk-reward seems unfavorable at 75 times June-26 price/earning with a discounted cash flow-based target price of Rs 3,750/share, implying 60 times June-26 P/E.
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