Data Preview: CPI Seen At 5.55% In December; WPI At 0.65%; November IIP Growth Likely To Moderate: Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang Report

Consumer price index inflation is seen at 5.55% in December 2023, unchanged from November 2023. Food and beverage inflation is expected to moderate month-on-month (led by lower vegetable prices), but it is likely to remain elevated at 8.2% on a low base.

Core CPI is likely to sustain its moderating trend and is seen at 4% in Dec-23 versus 4.11% in Nov-23.

Wholesale price index inflation is expected at 0.65% in Dec-23 versus 0.26% in Nov-23 mainly on account of food articles inflation remaining elevated at ~10% on a low base. Meanwhile, core WPI inflation is seen at -1.4% in Dec-23 versus -0.7% in Nov-23 on account of benign industrial commodity prices and a high base.

India's index of industrial production growth is likely to slow to 4% YoY in Nov-23 versus 11.7% in Oct-23 on a high base and moderation in other key indicators such as electricity output and motor vehicle production. S&P Manufacturing PMI however remained steady in Nov-23.

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