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CareEdge Research Report
Following muted growth in FY24, commercial vehicle sales volumes are expected to register a degrowth by 3-6% in FY25 due to a slowdown in demand in both the medium and heavy commercial vehicle and light commercial vehicle segments, as well as high inventory levels with dealers.
Demand is, however, likely to pick up some pace post-Q2 FY25 with the conclusion of general elections and a likely uptick in infrastructure projects post-monsoon. Replacement demand and mandatory scrapping of older government vehicles are expected to support volumes in FY25.
The muted growth in FY24 was mainly due to the high base of FY23, the transition to BS VI leading to higher vehicle costs and a slowdown in infrastructure projects amidst elections during the latter part of the year leading to higher inventory with dealers.
The commercial vehicle sector is expected to exhibit recovery in H2 FY25 due to anticipated GDP growth, ongoing infrastructure projects and potential interest rate cuts.
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