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Systematix Research Report
Cipla Ltd.'s Q2 FY25 revenues were in line but Ebitda and net income were slightly above our estimates. U.S. growth (-4.8 QoQ) and Domestic formulations growth (5% YoY) was lower than expectations. U.S. growth was impacted due to temporary supply issues in Lanreotide which are expected to be resolved by the end of Q3 FY25.
Domestic branded formulations business was impacted due to slow seasonal growth. We tweak our estimates on Cipla and roll forward our target price to Rs 1,756 based on 25 times September FY27E EPS. We upgrade to Buy from Hold at current market price.
The target valuation multiple has been revised to 25x (from 23x) as FY27 earnings would reflect a normalized earnings base (gRevlimid would have seen full erosion).
The key catalysts for the stock going forward would be approval for gAbraxane, respiratory and peptide assets in the US markets, and revival of growth in domestic branded formulation space. With close to $1 billion in net cash, potential inorganic initiatives would be crucial and would shape confidence around medium to long term growth.
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